{"id":9244,"date":"2016-11-03T23:25:30","date_gmt":"2016-11-04T03:25:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/digital.hbs.edu\/platform-rctom\/submission\/how-to-feed-9-billion-on-a-warming-planet\/"},"modified":"2016-11-07T20:23:25","modified_gmt":"2016-11-08T01:23:25","slug":"cargills-dilemma-farmers-versus-climate-science","status":"publish","type":"hck-submission","link":"https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-rctom\/submission\/cargills-dilemma-farmers-versus-climate-science\/","title":{"rendered":"Cargill\u2019s Dilemma: Farmers versus Climate Science"},"content":{"rendered":"<section id=\"module-position-PeBw0Xg1GDk\" class=\"storytopbar-bucket story-headline-module story-story-headline-module\">\n<h1 class=\"asset-headline\">Cargill&#8217;s Dilemma: Farmers versus Climate Science<\/h1>\n<\/section>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"Risk Committee Member Greg Page\" width=\"640\" height=\"360\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/TmIsQzMlmBY?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p>For the past few years, Cargill Executive Chairman Greg Page has been walking a tightrope.\u00a0 On the one hand, he has been rather outspoken about the need to take climate change seriously, partnering with Michael Bloomberg and Hank Paulson on the &#8220;Risky Business&#8221; project and penning op-eds with headlines like, &#8220;<a href=\"http:\/\/www.desmoinesregister.com\/story\/opinion\/readers\/2014\/08\/17\/must-act-decisively-fossil-fuels\/14179629\/\">Agriculture must engage in climate change discussion<\/a>.&#8221;\u00a0 On the other, he has been <a href=\"http:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2015\/02\/01\/business\/energy-environment\/climate-changes-bottom-line.html?_r=0\">steadfast in his refusal<\/a> to discuss the causes of climate change, saying &#8220;he doesn\u2019t know \u2014 or particularly care \u2014 whether human activity causes climate change.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>The demand for food will, of course, continue to increase as the world\u2019s population approaches 9 billion.\u00a0 While over the last several decades the green revolution allowed farmers to realize high yields without increasing agricultural land use, climate change threatens these high yields.\u00a0 The geography of agricultural production will likely need to shift and agricultural land use may need to once again increase in order to keep pace with demand.<\/p>\n<figure style=\"width: 680px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"\" src=\"http:\/\/ourworldindata.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/10\/ourworldindata_land-per-crop-pin.png\" width=\"680\" height=\"476\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Arable land per crop production index for the world, since 1961<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Given Cargill\u2019s role in the global food supply chain, it\u2019s not hard to understand why Page is concerned about climate change.\u00a0 As noted in \u201cRisky Business,\u201d crop yields may decrease in the United States by up to 20% within the next 25 years and some individual states may see their yields decrease by up to 70%.\u00a0 Cargill\u2019s cocoa operations, acquired from rival ADM in late 2015, are particularly vulnerable to climate change.\u00a0 Supply has been hit hard by recent dry weather conditions in West Africa, and in September the company faced a <a href=\"http:\/\/www.wsj.com\/articles\/cocoa-production-could-be-devastated-by-climate-change-experts-warn-1473952130\">two hundred thousand ton shortfall<\/a>.\u00a0 Climate change is already affecting Cargill\u2019s commodities trading and distributing businesses, and it looms large over its downstream businesses as well.\u00a0 Cargill\u2019s biofuels, animal feed, and livestock units are also extremely sensitive to shocks to the food supply system.<\/p>\n<p>Page\u2019s reticence about man\u2019s role in climate change is, at first glance, a bit harder to understand.\u00a0 If the company has already acknowledged the clear and present danger posed by climate change, why not take the extra step and acknowledge scientific consensus on its root cause?\u00a0 The answer, it would seem, is about managing relationships with farmers.\u00a0 According to <a href=\"http:\/\/grist.org\/food\/food-giants-cargill-and-general-mills-believe-in-climate-change-will-they-defend-themselves-from-it\/\">Page<\/a>, \u201cthere are a lot of people who think that the minute that they acknowledge causality, the role of government in their lives will increase\u2026[G]etting them to\u2026say that the primary cause of those changes was the behavior of them and their 7 billion compatriots \u2014 that\u2019s a big leap.\u201d\u00a0 With its farmers, Cargill has generally emphasized the need for adaptation and innovation in order to keep up with a changing climate.\u00a0 For example, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.wsj.com\/articles\/cargill-launching-data-analysis-service-for-farmers-1410201672\">Cargill&#8217;s encouraged farmers to embrace data analytics<\/a> in order to conserve water due to the increase prevalence of drought conditions.\u00a0 They have not, however, explicitly encouraged farmers to reduce their carbon footprints.<\/p>\n<p>Tacitly, the company does seem to acknowledge the connection between climate change and human activity and has taken a number of concrete steps forward.\u00a0 In 2014, Cargill signed the <a href=\"http:\/\/www.theatlantic.com\/politics\/archive\/2014\/09\/heres-what-major-nations-pledged-at-the-climate-summit\/443697\/\">Indonesia Palm Oil Pledge<\/a> to cease deforestation in the country as well as the <a href=\"http:\/\/www.cargill.com\/news\/releases\/2014\/NA31693655.jsp\">New York Deforestation Pledge<\/a> which committed the company to completely halt deforestation in its global supply chains by 2030. \u00a0In 2015, the company was one of 13 to sign the White House\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.whitehouse.gov\/the-press-office\/2015\/07\/27\/fact-sheet-white-house-launches-american-business-act-climate-pledge\">American Business Act on Climate Pledge<\/a> and commit to reducing carbon emissions by 6 billion tons by 2030.\u00a0 The company has also developed <a href=\"http:\/\/www.cargill.com\/news\/sustainability-is-the-new-normal\/index.jsp\">internal targets<\/a> for water and energy conservation as well as increased investment in renewable energy.<\/p>\n<p>It is an open question whether or not Page and Cargill can continue to walk this fine line.\u00a0 By refusing to acknowledge the causes of global climate change explicitly, the company may be hurting its own credibility with the government leaders it needs to partner with on effective legal frameworks and sustainability targets. \u00a0While Page is worried about moving too fast and alienating farmers, he may struggle to convince them that they have an important role to play in combating change if the company does not begin to speak more frankly about the nature of climate change. \u00a0Convincing farmers that they need to be prepared to adapt to climate change is easy; convincing them that they have a proactive role to play in slowing climate change is hard. \u00a0Cargill&#8217;s\u00a0careful\u00a0approach with farmers may indeed be sage,\u00a0but they&#8217;re going to have to bring them around sooner rather than later.<\/p>\n<p>Word Count:\u00a0733<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Additional References:<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.theatlantic.com\/politics\/archive\/2014\/09\/heres-what-major-nations-pledged-at-the-climate-summit\/443697\/\">http:\/\/www.theatlantic.com\/politics\/archive\/2014\/09\/heres-what-major-nations-pledged-at-the-climate-summit\/443697\/<\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2015\/02\/01\/business\/energy-environment\/climate-changes-bottom-line.html?_r=0\">http:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2015\/02\/01\/business\/energy-environment\/climate-changes-bottom-line.html?_r=0<\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.thenation.com\/article\/chairman-largest-private-company-america-just-told-1-percent-worry-about-climate-chan\/\">https:\/\/www.thenation.com\/article\/chairman-largest-private-company-america-just-told-1-percent-worry-about-climate-chan\/<\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/riskybusiness.org\/site\/assets\/uploads\/2015\/09\/RiskyBusiness_Report_WEB_09_08_14.pdf\">http:\/\/riskybusiness.org\/site\/assets\/uploads\/2015\/09\/RiskyBusiness_Report_WEB_09_08_14.pdf<\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/grist.org\/food\/food-giants-cargill-and-general-mills-believe-in-climate-change-will-they-defend-themselves-from-it\/\">http:\/\/grist.org\/food\/food-giants-cargill-and-general-mills-believe-in-climate-change-will-they-defend-themselves-from-it\/<\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.desmoinesregister.com\/story\/opinion\/columnists\/2014\/08\/10\/agriculture-climate-change\/13853539\/\">http:\/\/www.desmoinesregister.com\/story\/opinion\/columnists\/2014\/08\/10\/agriculture-climate-change\/13853539\/<\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.cargill.com\/news\/company-statements\/cargill-media-statement-on-risky-business-climate-change-report\/index.jsp\">http:\/\/www.cargill.com\/news\/company-statements\/cargill-media-statement-on-risky-business-climate-change-report\/index.jsp<\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.cargill.com\/connections\/five-ways-cargill-is-addressing-climate-change\/index.jsp\">http:\/\/www.cargill.com\/connections\/five-ways-cargill-is-addressing-climate-change\/index.jsp<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Cargill Executive Chairman Greg Page is talking about the perils of climate change, but will farmers listen? <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1939,"featured_media":9848,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","template":"","categories":[1243,28,1757,1218,1457,33,1225,2017],"class_list":["post-9244","hck-submission","type-hck-submission","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-agribusiness","category-agriculture","category-cargill","category-climate-change","category-farmers","category-food","category-food-chain","category-risky-business"],"connected_submission_link":"https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-rctom\/assignment\/climate-change-challenge-2016\/","yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the 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