Exhibit 1: Declining Cod Stock in Gulf of Maine, 1982-2013<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Climate Change: The New Overfishing<\/strong><\/p>\n Suddenly, an industry that for four decades believed overfishing was the biggest challenge is facing a new existential threat: climate change. This threat, while also human-caused, is much more unpredictable and difficult to control. Can the US fishing industry adapt and respond to the effects of climate change? Answering this requires a deeper dive into the industry structure.<\/p>\n In the Gulf of Maine, individuals are licensed as fish harvesters and apply for access to commercial fisheries, such as those for groundfish, lobster, tuna, etc. Often fishermen move between multiple fisheries as resource abundance and market demand change. Starting at about three miles offshore, marine fisheries are considered federal waters, and are managed by the New England Fishery Management Council (NEFMC). The NEFMC is one of eight regional Fishery Management Councils (FMCs) established in 1976 specifically to address overfishing and determine quotas\u00a0[4]<\/a> [Exhibit 2]. Historically, climate change mitigation has not been in this charter.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Exhibit 2: Traditional Role of Fisheries Management<\/p>\n <\/p>\n How Can the NEFMC Adapt?<\/strong><\/p>\n FMCs face the challenge of striking the right balance between economics and the environment. While quotas have improved fish populations, they have also placed severe strains on fishermen\u2019s profitability. As the effects of climate change become increasingly clear, how must FMCs such as the NEFMC adapt their management practices? At least three changes are needed: increased coordination across FMCs, improved data usage, and consideration for impact on fishermen.<\/p>\n FMCs are set up regionally. The NEFMC covers through southern New England, at which point oversight switches to the Mid-Atlantic Council. Climate change blurs these lines. Species historically located in the Mid-Atlantic, such as summer flounder and scup, are being observed in the Gulf of Maine\u00a0[5]<\/a>. As these species move north, do they fall under jurisdiction of the NEFMC, or do we extend reach of the Mid-Atlantic FMC? One option includes leveraging the Atlantic States Marine Fisheries Commission (ASFMC), which oversees non-federal waters along the entire east coast. This would require federal-based FMCs to relocate decision-making to inter-state agencies. Unsurprisingly, implementing such change is slow.<\/p>\n Additionally, accounting for climate change in quota decisions will require the NEFMC to use more diverse sources of data and climate forecasts that are inherently uncertain. They also need stronger management-scientist feedback loops to inform the most useful research questions and measure the impact of regulatory changes. As federal budgets are tightened, FMC bandwidth is already at capacity\u00a0[6]<\/a>. Investment in FMC capability-building is critical to collect and apply data in valuable and efficient ways.<\/p>\n Lastly, there is the little-discussed question of how to support fishermen whose livelihood is threatened by further reduced quotas and externalities [Exhibit 3]. Unlike the case of overfishing, they have little ability to reverse the cause. FMCs could look to agricultural practices such as farm subsidization, yet these solutions are criticized for interfering with price mechanisms and may make the US uncompetitive in the international fish industry. Alternatively, educating consumers on eco-friendly seafood could help shift tastes towards less endangered species, or increase willingness-to-pay for eco-friendly sourcing.<\/p>\n Exhibit 3:\u00a0Fishermen Are Facing Extinction, Too<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Can Federal Management Adapt Fast Enough?<\/strong><\/p>\n One of the biggest lessons learned in the last few years is that the rate of climate-induced ecosystem change has far exceeded our rate of adapting management practices. Federal agencies responsible for regulation are changing, but slowly. In order to accelerate solutions, how can we induce more responsibility in the more agile private sector? What must be addressed through regulation, and what can be addressed through innovation?<\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n [Word Count: 800]<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Cited Sources:<\/strong><\/p>\n [1]<\/a>\u00a0Marianne Lavelle, \u201cCollapse of New England\u2019s iconic cod tied to climate change,\u201d Science<\/em> (29 October 2015), accessed 30 October 2016, DOI:10.1126\/science.aad4793.<\/p>\n [2]<\/a>\u00a0Andrew J. Pershing et al, \u201cSlow adaptation in the face of rapid warming leads to collapse of the Gulf of Maine cod fishery,\u201d Science<\/em> (29 October 2015), accessed 30 October 2016, DOI: 10.1126\/science.aac9819.<\/p>\n [3]<\/a>\u00a0\u201cAs Oceans Warm, Fish are Finding New Zip Codes,\u201d Climate Central<\/em> (last updated 15 May 2013), accessed 30 October 2016, http:\/\/www.climatecentral.org\/news\/as-seas-warm-fish-need-new-zip-codes-15992<\/a>.<\/p>\n [4]<\/a>\u00a0George LaPointe, \u201cCommercial Fisheries: State of the Gulf of Maine Report,\u201d Gulf of Maine Council on the Marine Environment<\/em> (November 2013), accessed 30 October 2016, http:\/\/www.gulfofmaine.org\/2\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/03\/commercial-fisheries-theme-paper-webversion.pdf<\/a>.<\/p>\n [5]<\/a>\u00a0George LaPointe, \u201cCommercial Fisheries: State of the Gulf of Maine Report,\u201d Gulf of Maine Council on the Marine Environment<\/em> (November 2013), accessed 30 October 2016, http:\/\/www.gulfofmaine.org\/2\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/03\/commercial-fisheries-theme-paper-webversion.pdf<\/a>.<\/p>\n [6]<\/a>\u00a0\u201cWorkshop Report: EAST COAST CLIMATE CHANGE AND FISHERIES GOVERNANCE WORKSHOP,\u201d Mid-Atlantic Fishery Management Council<\/em> (March 2014), accessed 30 October 2016, http:\/\/www.nmfs.noaa.gov\/sfa\/management\/councils\/training\/2015\/rh_east_coast_climate_change.pdf<\/a>.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Additional Sources:<\/strong><\/p>\n P.C. Frumhoff et al, \u201cConfronting Climate Change in the Northeast,\u201d Northeast Climate Impacts Assessment<\/em> (July 2007), accessed 30 October 2016, https:\/\/www.researchgate.net\/profile\/Peter_Frumhoff2\/publication\/216769159_Confronting_Climate_Change_in_the_US_Northeast_Science_Impacts_and_Solutions\/links\/55709bfa08aee701d61bc496.pdf<\/a>.<\/p>\n![\"exhibit-1\"](\"https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-rctom\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2016\/10\/Exhibit-1-300x218.png\")
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<\/a><\/p>\n![\"945503_aptopix-fading-fishermen-4\"](\"https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-rctom\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2016\/10\/945503_APTOPIX-Fading-Fishermen.4-1-300x199.jpg\")
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