  {"id":33775,"date":"2018-11-13T17:42:39","date_gmt":"2018-11-13T22:42:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/digital.hbs.edu\/platform-rctom\/submission\/round-down-john-deere-brings-machine-vision-to-precision-agriculture\/"},"modified":"2018-11-13T18:14:01","modified_gmt":"2018-11-13T23:14:01","slug":"round-down-john-deere-brings-machine-vision-to-precision-agriculture","status":"publish","type":"hck-submission","link":"https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-rctom\/submission\/round-down-john-deere-brings-machine-vision-to-precision-agriculture\/","title":{"rendered":"Round Down: John Deere Brings Machine Vision to Precision Agriculture"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><a href=\"https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-rctom\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2018\/11\/tractors.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-33692\" src=\"https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-rctom\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2018\/11\/tractors-1024x683.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"640\" height=\"427\" srcset=\"https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-rctom\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2018\/11\/tractors-1024x683.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-rctom\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2018\/11\/tractors-300x200.jpg 300w, https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-rctom\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2018\/11\/tractors-768x512.jpg 768w, https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-rctom\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2018\/11\/tractors-600x400.jpg 600w, https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-rctom\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2018\/11\/tractors.jpg 1200w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 640px) 100vw, 640px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<h6 style=\"text-align: center\">Source: James Vincent, \u201cJohn Deere Is Buying an AI Startup to Help Teach Its Tractors How to Farm,\u201d The Verge, September 7, 2017,<br \/>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theverge.com\/2017\/9\/7\/16267962\/automated-farming-john-deere-buys-blue-river-technology\">https:\/\/www.theverge.com\/2017\/9\/7\/16267962\/automated-farming-john-deere-buys-blue-river-technology<\/a>, accessed November 2018<\/h6>\n<p style=\"text-align: center\"><em>&#8220;Take one man and put him on a tractor, and we can do the work of 8 to 10 people.&#8221;<\/em> &#8211; Clint Bigham, Blue River client <a href=\"#_edn1\" name=\"_ednref1\">[1]<\/a><\/p>\n<p>With global food demand slated to increase up to 98% by 2050\u00a0<a href=\"#_edn2\" name=\"_ednref2\">[2]<\/a>, farming yield en route to drop 2-3% due to climate change <a href=\"#_edn3\" name=\"_ednref3\">[3]<\/a>, and a superweed crisis emerging in response to reliance on a narrow range of herbicides\u00a0<a href=\"#_edn4\" name=\"_ednref4\">[4]<\/a>, the agriculture industry faces an unprecedented need for innovation. Recent years have seen a spate of consolidation and investment, with a record $10.1B pouring into agricultural technology (\u201cag-tech\u201d) startups in 2017. Last year also featured a bumper crop of acquisitions, including purchases of farm software company Granular by DowDuPont for $300M and agricultural robotics startup Blue River by Deere &amp; Company for $305M.\u00a0<a href=\"#_edn5\" name=\"_ednref5\">[5]<\/a><\/p>\n<p>These acquisitions typify two dominant trends in the farming industry: continuing progress in \u201cprecision agriculture\u201d, the use of sensors and algorithms to manage site-specific crop and soil variability\u00a0<a href=\"#_edn6\" name=\"_ednref6\">[6]<\/a>, and the emerging space of agricultural machine learning. The latter industry is expected to grow 23.2% year-over-year through 2023, concentrated in crop monitoring, robotics, irrigation, and farm drones.\u00a0<a href=\"#_edn7\" name=\"_ednref7\">[7]<\/a> With data availability multiplying 1000-fold in the past two decades and software reaping concomitant performance improvements, machine learning investment over the next decade will prove not merely beneficial but indispensable to agricultural companies\u2019 survival.\u00a0<a href=\"#_edn8\" name=\"_ednref8\">[8]<\/a><\/p>\n<p>Deere &amp; Company, the world\u2019s largest farm equipment manufacturer with $29.7B in 2017 revenues\u00a0<a href=\"#_edn9\" name=\"_ednref9\">[9]<\/a>, is an established leader in precision agriculture and innovator in autonomous navigation. The company\u2019s pioneering AutoTrac&#x2122; guidance system, together with competitors, is used in 60-70% of U.S. farm acreage\u00a0<a href=\"#_edn10\" name=\"_ednref10\">[10]<\/a>. The Blue River acquisition enhances Deere\u2019s technological portfolio, enabling its tractors to identify specific crops and weeds using the same deep learning algorithms underlying facial recognition\u00a0<a href=\"#_edn11\" name=\"_ednref11\">[11]<\/a>. Now used in lettuce production with 10% US adoption, Blue River\u2019s software replaces the current standard of broad-based Roundup sprays, made costlier and less effective by herbicide-resistant \u201csuper-pests\u201d, with micro-sprays the size of postage stamps. Technology director Willy Pell claims that the successor for cotton will reduce herbicide usage by 90%. Soybean- and corn-specific products, as well as harvesting and seed-planting products that incorporate soil type and crop size, are currently under development.\u00a0<a href=\"#_edn12\" name=\"_ednref12\">[12]<\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center\"><iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"See &amp; Spray - Blue River Technology&#039;s precision weed control machine\" width=\"640\" height=\"360\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/-YCa8RntsRE?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe><\/p>\n<h6 style=\"text-align: center\">Blue River Technology,\u00a0\u201cSee &amp; Spray &#8211; Blue River Technology\u2019s Precision Weed Control Machine,\u201d YouTube,<br \/>\npublished August 23, 2017, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=-YCa8RntsRE\">https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=-YCa8RntsRE<\/a>, accessed November 2018.\u00ad\u00ad<\/h6>\n<p>Looking forward, ag-tech machine learning presents an especially attractive opportunity for large firms because of the scale of data required. Today\u2019s algorithms require tens or hundreds of thousands of training images <a href=\"#_edn13\" name=\"_ednref13\">[13]<\/a> to achieve competence, further multiplied by crop and geographical variation. Deere thus enjoys a rare competitive advantage by using the same field data that informs its farmers\u2019 chemical regimens to enhance its product lines. This feedback loop will enable Deere to create a defensible IP moat and reinforce its autonomous navigation offerings, where costly false negatives (e.g. disregarding safety hazards) and weather variability remain serious challenges.\u00a0<a href=\"#_edn14\" name=\"_ednref14\">[14]<\/a><\/p>\n<p>Over the next decade, Deere must capitalize on its reach and culture of innovation to preserve its advantage among equipment manufacturers and the broader agriculture industry. Diversifying its current precision-agriculture lineup with further robotics investments will allow the company to offer a cohesive product suite, delivering unparalleled crop yield and cost savings. Deere has recently moved in this direction, integrating with ag-drone data platform provider Agribotix\u00a0<a href=\"#_edn15\" name=\"_ednref15\">[15]<\/a> and drone analytics startup Sentera\u00a0<a href=\"#_edn16\" name=\"_ednref16\">[16]<\/a>, whose AgVault utilizes high-resolution imagery live in the field. <a href=\"#_edn17\" name=\"_ednref17\">[17]<\/a> Deere also stands to reap continuing rewards from collaborations with academia, where it has sponsored and licensed past research.\u00a0<a href=\"#_edn18\" name=\"_ednref18\">[18]<\/a><\/p>\n<p>Finally, Deere must embrace Blue River CEO Jorge Heraud\u2019s vision to move \u201cfrom the field level to the plant level\u2026[using] machine learning to help smart machines detect, identify, and make management decisions about every single plant\u201d.\u00a0<a href=\"#_edn19\" name=\"_ednref19\">[19]<\/a> Generalizability remains the grand dream of machine learning; Deere\u2019s scale and diversity present a unique opportunity to thrive by contributing to its realization. A decade from now, Deere may not need to customize software per-crop \u2013 given sufficient training and algorithmic advances, its systems could not only generalize across observed data, but also infer the spaces in between.<\/p>\n<p>As rising demand, declining yield, burgeoning investment, and data proliferation make continued development inevitable, investors and companies must ask: which innovation segment will dominate? Double-digit growth looks set to continue on all fronts <a href=\"#_edn20\" name=\"_ednref20\">[20]<\/a>, but a single breakthrough, whether in machine vision or microbiology, could transform minor players into multibillion-dollar juggernauts. Additionally, which companies will lead the charge, and which regions will see the greatest change? Large firms have thus far maintained their advantage through acquisitions, but growth investors such as Softbank, whose globally oriented Vision Fund recently poured $160M into Zymergen, are redrawing the competitive map. In the ag-tech industry, as with the farms it promises to revitalize, the direction has long been clear, but \u201cthe devil is in the data\u201d. <a href=\"#_edn21\" name=\"_ednref21\">[21]<\/a><\/p>\n<p>(778 words)<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-rctom\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2018\/11\/xkcd.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-33693\" src=\"https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-rctom\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2018\/11\/xkcd.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"740\" height=\"261\" srcset=\"https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-rctom\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2018\/11\/xkcd.png 740w, https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-rctom\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2018\/11\/xkcd-300x106.png 300w, https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-rctom\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2018\/11\/xkcd-600x212.png 600w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 740px) 100vw, 740px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<h6 style=\"text-align: center\">Source: Randall Munroe, \u201cHere to Help\u201d, XKCD, <a href=\"https:\/\/xkcd.com\/1831\/\">https:\/\/xkcd.com\/1831\/<\/a>, accessed November 2018.<\/h6>\n<p><a href=\"#_ednref1\" name=\"_edn1\">[1]<\/a> Blue River Technology,\u00a0\u201cSee &amp; Spray &#8211; Blue River Technology\u2019s Precision Weed Control Machine,\u201d YouTube, published August 23, 2017, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=-YCa8RntsRE\">https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=-YCa8RntsRE<\/a>, accessed November 2018.\u00ad\u00ad<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"#_ednref2\" name=\"_edn2\">[2]<\/a> Maarten Elferink and Florian Schierhorn, \u201cGlobal Demand for Food Is Rising. Can We Meet It?\u201d\u00a0<em>性视界 Business Review<\/em>, April 7, 2016, <a href=\"https:\/\/hbr.org\/2016\/04\/global-demand-for-food-is-rising-can-we-meet-it\">https:\/\/hbr.org\/2016\/04\/global-demand-for-food-is-rising-can-we-meet-it<\/a>, accessed November 2018.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"#_ednref3\" name=\"_edn3\">[3]<\/a> David Reid, \u201cUN Report Shows Climate Change Effect on Farming,\u201d September 17, 2018, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2018\/09\/17\/un-report-shows-climate-change-effect-on-farming.html\">https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2018\/09\/17\/un-report-shows-climate-change-effect-on-farming.html<\/a>, accessed November 2018.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"#_ednref4\" name=\"_edn4\">[4]<\/a> Union of Concerned Scientists, \u201cThe Rise of Superweeds\u2014and What to Do About It,\u201d <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ucsusa.org\/food_and_agriculture\/our-failing-food-system\/industrial-agriculture\/the-rise-of-superweeds.html\">https:\/\/www.ucsusa.org\/food_and_agriculture\/our-failing-food-system\/industrial-agriculture\/the-rise-of-superweeds.html<\/a>, accessed November 2018.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"#_ednref5\" name=\"_edn5\">[5]<\/a> <em>Reuters<\/em>, \u201cGlobal Ag Tech Startup Investments Rise 29 Percent in 2017,\u201d March 6, 2018, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/article\/agriculture-tech-investment-idUSL2N1QO1PW\">https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/article\/agriculture-tech-investment-idUSL2N1QO1PW<\/a>, accessed November 2018.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"#_ednref6\" name=\"_edn6\">[6]<\/a> Tom Meersman, \u201cPrecision Agriculture Becomes Mainstream in Minnesota,\u201d Star Tribune, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.startribune.com\/precision-agriculture-gps-robots-drones-are-new-minn-farmhands\/259320921\/\">http:\/\/www.startribune.com\/precision-agriculture-gps-robots-drones-are-new-minn-farmhands\/259320921\/<\/a>, accessed November 2018.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"#_ednref7\" name=\"_edn7\">[7]<\/a> Prescient &amp; Strategic Intelligence, \u201cAI Market in Agriculture Size, Global Industry Report, 2023.\u201d <a href=\"https:\/\/www.psmarketresearch.com\/market-analysis\/artificial-intelligence-in-agriculture-market\">https:\/\/www.psmarketresearch.com\/market-analysis\/artificial-intelligence-in-agriculture-market<\/a>, accessed November 2018.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"#_ednref8\" name=\"_edn8\">[8]<\/a> Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee, \u201cWhat\u2019s Driving the Machine Learning Explosion?\u201d\u00a0<em>性视界 Business Review<\/em>, July 1, 2017, <a href=\"https:\/\/hbr.org\/2017\/07\/whats-driving-the-machine-learning-explosion\">https:\/\/hbr.org\/2017\/07\/whats-driving-the-machine-learning-explosion<\/a>, accessed November 2018.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"#_ednref9\" name=\"_edn9\">[9]<\/a> Statista, \u201cMajor Farm Machinery Manufacturers &#8211; Global Revenue 2017\u201d, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.statista.com\/statistics\/461428\/revenue-of-major-farm-machinery-manufacturers-worldwide\/\">https:\/\/www.statista.com\/statistics\/461428\/revenue-of-major-farm-machinery-manufacturers-worldwide\/<\/a>, accessed November 2018.\u00ad\u00ad<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"#_ednref10\" name=\"_edn10\">[10]<\/a> The John Deere Journal, \u201cJohn Deere Hands-Free Guidance System Continues Its Evolution,\u201d March 29, 2016, <a href=\"https:\/\/johndeerejournal.com\/2016\/03\/terry-picket-first-gps-unit\/\">https:\/\/johndeerejournal.com\/2016\/03\/terry-picket-first-gps-unit\/<\/a>, accessed November 2018.\u00ad\u00ad<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"#_ednref11\" name=\"_edn11\">[11]<\/a> James Vincent, \u201cJohn Deere Is Buying an AI Startup to Help Teach Its Tractors How to Farm,\u201d The Verge, September 7, 2017, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theverge.com\/2017\/9\/7\/16267962\/automated-farming-john-deere-buys-blue-river-technology\">https:\/\/www.theverge.com\/2017\/9\/7\/16267962\/automated-farming-john-deere-buys-blue-river-technology<\/a>, accessed November 2018.\u00ad\u00ad<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"#_ednref12\" name=\"_edn12\">[12]<\/a> Tom Simonite, \u201cWhy John Deere Just Spent $305 Million on a Lettuce-Farming Robot,\u201d\u00a0<em>Wired<\/em>, September 7, 2017, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.wired.com\/story\/why-john-deere-just-spent-dollar305-million-on-a-lettuce-farming-robot\/\">https:\/\/www.wired.com\/story\/why-john-deere-just-spent-dollar305-million-on-a-lettuce-farming-robot\/<\/a>, accessed November 2018.\u00ad\u00ad<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"#_ednref13\" name=\"_edn13\">[13]<\/a> James Vincent, \u201cThese Are Three of the Biggest Problems Facing Today\u2019s AI,\u201d The Verge, October 10, 2016, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theverge.com\/2016\/10\/10\/13224930\/ai-deep-learning-limitations-drawbacks\">https:\/\/www.theverge.com\/2016\/10\/10\/13224930\/ai-deep-learning-limitations-drawbacks<\/a>, accessed November 2018.\u00ad\u00ad<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"#_ednref14\" name=\"_edn14\">[14]<\/a> Dave Gershgorn, \u201cAfter Trying to Build Self-Driving Tractors for More than 20 Years, John Deere Has Learned a Hard Truth about Autonomy,\u201d Quartz, <a href=\"https:\/\/qz.com\/1042343\/after-trying-to-build-self-driving-tractors-for-more-than-20-years-john-deere-has-learned-a-hard-truth-about-autonomy\/\">https:\/\/qz.com\/1042343\/after-trying-to-build-self-driving-tractors-for-more-than-20-years-john-deere-has-learned-a-hard-truth-about-autonomy\/<\/a>, accessed November 2018.\u00ad\u00ad<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"#_ednref15\" name=\"_edn15\">[15]<\/a> Jason Reagan, \u201cAgricultural Drone Provider Inks Major Deal with John Deere, \u201d\u00a0<em>DRONELIFE<\/em>\u00a0(blog), January 4, 2018, <a href=\"https:\/\/dronelife.com\/2018\/01\/04\/agricultural-drone-provider-inks-major-deal-john-deere\/\">https:\/\/dronelife.com\/2018\/01\/04\/agricultural-drone-provider-inks-major-deal-john-deere\/<\/a>, accessed November 2018.\u00ad\u00ad<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"#_ednref16\" name=\"_edn16\">[16]<\/a> Cision, \u201cSentera Announces Series A Funding,\u201d September 5, 2018, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.prnewswire.com\/news-releases\/sentera-announces-series-a-funding-300707562.html\">https:\/\/www.prnewswire.com\/news-releases\/sentera-announces-series-a-funding-300707562.html<\/a>, accessed November 2018.\u00ad\u00ad<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"#_ednref17\" name=\"_edn17\">[17]<\/a> Sentera, \u201cAbout Sentera,\u201d <a href=\"https:\/\/sentera.com\/johndeere\/\">https:\/\/sentera.com\/johndeere\/<\/a>, accessed November 2018.\u00ad\u00ad<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"#_ednref18\" name=\"_edn18\">[18]<\/a> The John Deere Journal, \u201cJohn Deere Hands-Free Guidance System Continues Its Evolution,\u201d March 29, 2016, <a href=\"https:\/\/johndeerejournal.com\/2016\/03\/terry-picket-first-gps-unit\/\">https:\/\/johndeerejournal.com\/2016\/03\/terry-picket-first-gps-unit\/<\/a>, accessed November 2018.\u00ad\u00ad<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"#_ednref19\" name=\"_edn19\">[19]<\/a> John Deere US, \u201cDeere Acquisition of Blue River Technology,\u201d <a href=\"https:\/\/www.deere.com\/en\/our-company\/news-and-announcements\/news-releases\/2017\/corporate\/2017sep06-blue-river-technology\/\">https:\/\/www.deere.com\/en\/our-company\/news-and-announcements\/news-releases\/2017\/corporate\/2017sep06-blue-river-technology\/<\/a>, accessed November 2018.\u00ad\u00ad<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"#_ednref20\" name=\"_edn20\">[20]<\/a> Prescient &amp; Strategic Intelligence, \u201cAI Market in Agriculture Size, Global Industry Report, 2023.\u201d <a href=\"https:\/\/www.psmarketresearch.com\/market-analysis\/artificial-intelligence-in-agriculture-market\">https:\/\/www.psmarketresearch.com\/market-analysis\/artificial-intelligence-in-agriculture-market<\/a>, accessed November 2018.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"#_ednref21\" name=\"_edn21\">[21]<\/a> Arama Kukutai and Spencer Maughan, \u201cHow The AgTech Investment Boom Will Create A Wave Of Agriculture Unicorns,\u201d <em>Forbes<\/em>, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/sites\/outofasia\/2018\/01\/16\/how-the-agtech-investment-boom-will-create-a-wave-of-agriculture-unicorns\/\">https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/sites\/outofasia\/2018\/01\/16\/how-the-agtech-investment-boom-will-create-a-wave-of-agriculture-unicorns\/<\/a>, accessed November 2018.\u00ad\u00ad<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>In 2017, the world&#039;s largest tractor company spent $305M to acquire a startup that distinguishes lettuce from pigweed. As a result, US farmers are freeing themselves from Monsanto&#039;s Roundup. Is John Deere&#039;s machine learning approach the future of ag tech?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":11580,"featured_media":34042,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","template":"","categories":[1243,1911,1643,1909,346,2461],"class_list":["post-33775","hck-submission","type-hck-submission","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-agribusiness","category-agriculture-technology","category-agtech","category-artificial-intelligence","category-machine-learning","category-machine-vision","hck-taxonomy-organization-john-deere","hck-taxonomy-industry-agriculture-and-agribusiness","hck-taxonomy-country-united-states"],"connected_submission_link":"https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-rctom\/assignment\/rc-tom-challenge-2018\/","yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Round Down: John Deere Brings Machine Vision to Precision Agriculture - Technology and Operations Management<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-rctom\/submission\/round-down-john-deere-brings-machine-vision-to-precision-agriculture\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Round Down: John Deere Brings Machine Vision to Precision Agriculture - Technology and Operations Management\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"In 2017, the world&#039;s largest tractor company spent $305M to acquire a startup that distinguishes lettuce from pigweed. 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