{"id":33228,"date":"2018-11-13T16:30:30","date_gmt":"2018-11-13T21:30:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/digital.hbs.edu\/platform-rctom\/submission\/predictive-policing-promoting-peace-or-perpetuating-prejudice\/"},"modified":"2018-11-13T16:30:30","modified_gmt":"2018-11-13T21:30:30","slug":"predictive-policing-promoting-peace-or-perpetuating-prejudice","status":"publish","type":"hck-submission","link":"https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-rctom\/submission\/predictive-policing-promoting-peace-or-perpetuating-prejudice\/","title":{"rendered":"Predictive Policing: Promoting Peace or Perpetuating Prejudice?"},"content":{"rendered":"

What if you could stop a crime before it happened? That\u2019s the promise of \u201cpredictive policing,\u201d which uses algorithms to analyze data about past criminal activity in order to illuminate patterns and establish hypotheses about future wrongdoing. This approach allows law enforcement to be proactive rather than reactive, ideally lowering crime rates and enhancing community safety.[1]<\/a><\/p>\n

<\/a>The city of Chicago has the highest number of homicides per year across all U.S. cities.[2]<\/a> This epidemic of violence presents a challenge to the Chicago Police Department (CPD), which must efficiently deploy human and financial resources to keep residents safe. By incorporating machine learning into its policing process, CPD can focus its efforts on communities and individuals that are supposedly most likely to be involved in criminal activity.<\/p>\n

In 2013, CPD partnered with researchers at the Illinois Institute of Technology to create an algorithm that identifies Chicagoans most at risk of being victims or perpetrators of violent crimes.[3]<\/a> This \u201cStrategic Subject List\u201d (SSL) assigns a score of 1 to 500 based on an individual\u2019s probability of being involved with a shooting or murder. The score is generated based on factors including a person\u2019s history of arrests and connections to past criminal activity.[4]<\/a><\/p>\n

The SSL is used to facilitate proactive interventions through CPD\u2019s \u201cCustom Notification Program.\u201d Police officers and social workers visit the homes of people with high risk scores to warn them that they will likely be involved in a shooting as the victim or perpetrator, and to offer resources such as drug treatment programs, housing and job training, and support for leaving gangs.[5]<\/a> Police personnel also inform them that the highest possible criminal charges will be pursued if they are found to be perpetrators of any further criminal activity.[6]<\/a><\/p>\n

In the coming years, CPD will need to demonstrate that the SSL program is effective. A 2016 study by the RAND corporation found that people on the so-called \u201cheat list\u201d were not more or less likely to be involved in a shooting or homicide than the control group.[7]<\/a> CPD must also figure out how to maximize the utility of the SSL algorithm. According to a RAND researcher, officers are given vague directives on how to use the SSL, and thus the predictive data is not leveraged in an impactful and actionable way.[8]<\/a><\/p>\n

CPD intends to increase its reliance on machine learning in the next decade. In October 2018, the mayor announced an expansion of the city\u2019s \u201csmart policing strategy,\u201d building on a pilot program that uses technology to complement existing policing practices. [9]<\/a> For example, CPD will use past crime data (and other inputs including phases of the moon and schedules of sports games)[10]<\/a> to predict where criminal activity might occur, and provide officers with real-time analysis on mobile apps to inform their patrols. Initial data suggests that these technological tools have contributed to a citywide decline in violence over the past year. [11]<\/a><\/p>\n

As CPD continues to incorporate machine learning tools such as SSL into its policing process, the algorithms must be more transparent. Predictive policing programs can undermine a person\u2019s right to the presumption of innocence and other civil liberties.[12]<\/a> The use of opaque algorithms might also exacerbate the tense relationship between community members and law enforcement. In a statement on the use of predictive policing by CPD, a representative from the ACLU of Illinois wrote, \u201cWe are at a crisis point in Chicago regarding community and police relations. Transparency is critical to restore faith in the system.\u201d[13]<\/a><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>CPD must also ensure that the SSL system does not reinforce biases against communities of color. According to Chicago Magazine\u2019s<\/em> analysis, 56% of Black men ages 20-29 in Chicago have an SSL score.[14]<\/a> This is potentially the result of a negative \u201cfeedback loop\u201d given that the algorithm considers a person\u2019s past arrests. Studies have shown that Black people are arrested for drug possession, for example, at disproportionate rates,[15]<\/a> so any program that uses historical arrests to predict future criminal activity relies on biased inputs.<\/p>\n

Finally, two questions warrant consideration. First, should police departments employ predictive policing technologies? Such algorithms could theoretically eliminate the need to rely on unjust proxies such as race to drive policing practices. However, predictive policing also has the potential to undermine civil liberties, perpetuate structural bias, and lead to unnecessary surveillance.<\/p>\n

The second question invites imagination \u2014 are there other opportunities for police departments to leverage machine learning to increase community safety? For example, a team of data scientists at the University of Chicago created an algorithm to identify police officers with a propensity for excessive force.[16]<\/a> Or perhaps CPD could wield its predictive technology to take a holistic, preventative approach to community safety, proactively connecting service providers with individuals most impacted by the root causes of violence, such as poverty and mental health issues.[17]<\/a><\/p>\n

[795 words]<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

[1]<\/a>\u00a0Leslie A. Gordon, \u201cPredictive policing may help bag burglars\u2014but it may also be a constitutional problem,\u201d ABA Journal 99(9) (September 2013): 1.<\/p>\n

[2]<\/a>\u00a0Cheryl Corley, “Chicago Battles Its Image As Murder Capital Of The Nation,”NPR<\/em>, August 10, 2018,\u00a0https:\/\/www.npr.org\/2018\/08\/10\/637410426\/chicago-battles-its-image-as-murder-capital-of-the-nation<\/a>, accessed November 12.<\/p>\n

[3]<\/a> Jeff Asher and Rob Arthur, “Inside the Algorithm That Tries to Predict Gun Violence in Chicago,” The New York Times<\/em>, June 13, 2017,\u00a0https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2017\/06\/13\/upshot\/what-an-algorithm-reveals-about-life-on-chicagos-high-risk-list.html<\/a>, accessed November 12.<\/p>\n

[4]<\/a>\u00a0Chicago Police Department, “Special Order S09-11: Strategic Subject List (SSL) Dashboard,” July 14, 2016,\u00a0http:\/\/directives.chicagopolice.org\/directives\/data\/a7a57b85-155e9f4b-50c15-5e9f-7742e3ac8b0ab2d3.html<\/a>, accessed November 12.<\/p>\n

[5]<\/a>\u00a0Monica Davey, “Chicago Police Try to Predict Who May Shoot or Be Shot,”\u00a0The New York Times<\/em>, May 23, 2016,\u00a0https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2016\/05\/24\/us\/armed-with-data-chicago-police-try-to-predict-who-may-shoot-or-be-shot.html<\/a>, accessed November 12.<\/p>\n

[6]<\/a> Chicago Police Department, “Special Order S09-11: Strategic Subject List (SSL) Dashboard,” July 14, 2016,\u00a0http:\/\/directives.chicagopolice.org\/directives\/data\/a7a57b85-155e9f4b-50c15-5e9f-7742e3ac8b0ab2d3.html<\/a>, accessed November 12.<\/p>\n

[7]<\/a> Jessica Saunders, Priscillia Hunt, and John S. Hollywood, “Predictions put into practice: a quasi-experimental evaluation of Chicago\u2019s predictive policing pilot,” Journal of Experimental Criminology 12(3) (September 2016): 347-371.<\/p>\n

[8]<\/a>\u00a0John S. Hollywood, “CPD’s ‘heat list’ and the dilemma of predictive policing,”\u00a0Crain’s Chicago Business<\/em>, September 19, 2016,\u00a0https:\/\/www.chicagobusiness.com\/article\/20160919\/OPINION\/160919856\/chicago-police-s-heat-list-and-what-to-do-with-predictive-policing<\/a>, accessed November 12.<\/p>\n

[9]<\/a> \u201cMayor Emanuel Announces Expansion Of Smart Policing Strategy Supporting Nearly Two Years Of Consecutive Declines In Crime,\u201d
\npress release, October 10, 2018, on City of Chicago Office of the Mayor website, https:\/\/www.cityofchicago.org\/city\/en\/depts\/mayor\/press_room\/press_releases\/2018\/october\/101018_ExpansionSmartPolicingStrategy.html<\/a>, accessed November 12.<\/p>\n

[10]<\/a>\u00a0“Violent crime is down in Chicago,”\u00a0The Economist<\/em>, May 5, 2018,\u00a0https:\/\/www.economist.com\/united-states\/2018\/05\/05\/violent-crime-is-down-in-chicago<\/a>, accessed November 12.<\/p>\n

[11]<\/a> \u201cMayor Emanuel Announces Expansion Of Smart Policing Strategy Supporting Nearly Two Years Of Consecutive Declines In Crime,\u201d
\npress release, October 10, 2018, on City of Chicago Office of the Mayor website, https:\/\/www.cityofchicago.org\/city\/en\/depts\/mayor\/press_room\/press_releases\/2018\/october\/101018_ExpansionSmartPolicingStrategy.html<\/a>, accessed November 12.<\/p>\n

[12]<\/a>\u00a0ACLU, “Statement of Concern About Predictive Policing by ACLU and 16 Civil Rights Privacy, Racial Justice, and Technology Organizations,” August 31, 2016,\u00a0https:\/\/www.aclu.org\/other\/statement-concern-about-predictive-policing-aclu-and-16-civil-rights-privacy-racial-justice<\/a>, accessed November 12.<\/p>\n

[13]<\/a>\u00a0Karen Sheley, “Statement on Predictive Policing in Chicago,” June 7, 2016,\u00a0https:\/\/www.aclu-il.org\/en\/press-releases\/statement-predictive-policing-chicago<\/a>,\u00a0accessed November 12.<\/p>\n

[14]<\/a>\u00a0Yana Kunichoff and Patrick Sier, “The Contradictions of Chicago Police\u2019s Secretive List,”\u00a0Chicago Magazine<\/em>, August 21, 2017,\u00a0https:\/\/www.chicagomag.com\/city-life\/August-2017\/Chicago-Police-Strategic-Subject-List\/<\/a>,\u00a0accessed November 12.<\/p>\n

[15]<\/a> “Violent crime is down in Chicago,”\u00a0The Economist<\/em>, May 5, 2018,\u00a0https:\/\/www.economist.com\/united-states\/2018\/05\/05\/violent-crime-is-down-in-chicago<\/a>, accessed November 12.<\/p>\n

[16]<\/a>\u00a0Rob Mitchum, “Using data science to confront policing challenges,”\u00a0UChicago News<\/em>, August 25, 2016,\u00a0https:\/\/news.uchicago.edu\/story\/using-data-science-confront-policing-challenges<\/a>, accessed November 12.<\/p>\n

[17]<\/a>\u00a0Andrew V. Papachristos, “CPD’s crucial choice: Treat its list as offenders or as potential victims?” Chicago Tribune<\/em>, July 29, 2016,\u00a0https:\/\/www.chicagotribune.com\/news\/opinion\/commentary\/ct-gun-violence-list-chicago-police-murder-perspec-0801-jm-20160729-story.html<\/a>, accessed November 12.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The Chicago Police Department's embrace of machine learning raises critical questions about the balance between community safety, civil liberties, and systemic bias. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":11788,"featured_media":33229,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","template":"","categories":[4818,4816,4817,4819,346,2264,2373],"class_list":["post-33228","hck-submission","type-hck-submission","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-bias","category-chicago","category-chicago-police-department","category-civil-liberties","category-machine-learning","category-police","category-process-improvement","hck-taxonomy-organization-chicago-police-department","hck-taxonomy-industry-public-administration","hck-taxonomy-country-united-states"],"connected_submission_link":"https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-rctom\/assignment\/rc-tom-challenge-2018\/","yoast_head":"\nPredictive Policing: Promoting Peace or Perpetuating Prejudice? - Technology and Operations Management<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-rctom\/submission\/predictive-policing-promoting-peace-or-perpetuating-prejudice\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Predictive Policing: Promoting Peace or Perpetuating Prejudice? - Technology and Operations Management\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The Chicago Police Department's embrace of machine learning raises critical questions about the balance between community safety, civil liberties, and systemic bias.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-rctom\/submission\/predictive-policing-promoting-peace-or-perpetuating-prejudice\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Technology and Operations Management\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-rctom\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2018\/11\/inquisitr.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"940\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"545\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"6 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/d3.harvard.edu\\\/platform-rctom\\\/submission\\\/predictive-policing-promoting-peace-or-perpetuating-prejudice\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/d3.harvard.edu\\\/platform-rctom\\\/submission\\\/predictive-policing-promoting-peace-or-perpetuating-prejudice\\\/\",\"name\":\"Predictive Policing: Promoting Peace or Perpetuating Prejudice? - Technology and Operations Management\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/d3.harvard.edu\\\/platform-rctom\\\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/d3.harvard.edu\\\/platform-rctom\\\/submission\\\/predictive-policing-promoting-peace-or-perpetuating-prejudice\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/d3.harvard.edu\\\/platform-rctom\\\/submission\\\/predictive-policing-promoting-peace-or-perpetuating-prejudice\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/d3.harvard.edu\\\/platform-rctom\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/sites\\\/4\\\/2018\\\/11\\\/inquisitr.jpg\",\"datePublished\":\"2018-11-13T21:30:30+00:00\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/d3.harvard.edu\\\/platform-rctom\\\/submission\\\/predictive-policing-promoting-peace-or-perpetuating-prejudice\\\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/d3.harvard.edu\\\/platform-rctom\\\/submission\\\/predictive-policing-promoting-peace-or-perpetuating-prejudice\\\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/d3.harvard.edu\\\/platform-rctom\\\/submission\\\/predictive-policing-promoting-peace-or-perpetuating-prejudice\\\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/d3.harvard.edu\\\/platform-rctom\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/sites\\\/4\\\/2018\\\/11\\\/inquisitr.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/d3.harvard.edu\\\/platform-rctom\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/sites\\\/4\\\/2018\\\/11\\\/inquisitr.jpg\",\"width\":940,\"height\":545,\"caption\":\"<> on December 9, 2015 in Chicago, Illinois.\"},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/d3.harvard.edu\\\/platform-rctom\\\/submission\\\/predictive-policing-promoting-peace-or-perpetuating-prejudice\\\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\\\/\\\/d3.harvard.edu\\\/platform-rctom\\\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Submissions\",\"item\":\"https:\\\/\\\/d3.harvard.edu\\\/platform-rctom\\\/submission\\\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":3,\"name\":\"Predictive Policing: Promoting Peace or Perpetuating Prejudice?\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/d3.harvard.edu\\\/platform-rctom\\\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/d3.harvard.edu\\\/platform-rctom\\\/\",\"name\":\"Technology and Operations Management\",\"description\":\"MBA Student Perspectives\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"性视界Action\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\\\/\\\/d3.harvard.edu\\\/platform-rctom\\\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":{\"@type\":\"PropertyValueSpecification\",\"valueRequired\":true,\"valueName\":\"search_term_string\"}}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Predictive Policing: Promoting Peace or Perpetuating Prejudice? - Technology and Operations Management","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-rctom\/submission\/predictive-policing-promoting-peace-or-perpetuating-prejudice\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"Predictive Policing: Promoting Peace or Perpetuating Prejudice? - Technology and Operations Management","og_description":"The Chicago Police Department's embrace of machine learning raises critical questions about the balance between community safety, civil liberties, and systemic bias.","og_url":"https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-rctom\/submission\/predictive-policing-promoting-peace-or-perpetuating-prejudice\/","og_site_name":"Technology and Operations Management","og_image":[{"width":940,"height":545,"url":"https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-rctom\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2018\/11\/inquisitr.jpg","type":"image\/jpeg"}],"twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Est. reading time":"6 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-rctom\/submission\/predictive-policing-promoting-peace-or-perpetuating-prejudice\/","url":"https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-rctom\/submission\/predictive-policing-promoting-peace-or-perpetuating-prejudice\/","name":"Predictive Policing: Promoting Peace or Perpetuating Prejudice? - Technology and Operations Management","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-rctom\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-rctom\/submission\/predictive-policing-promoting-peace-or-perpetuating-prejudice\/#primaryimage"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-rctom\/submission\/predictive-policing-promoting-peace-or-perpetuating-prejudice\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-rctom\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2018\/11\/inquisitr.jpg","datePublished":"2018-11-13T21:30:30+00:00","breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-rctom\/submission\/predictive-policing-promoting-peace-or-perpetuating-prejudice\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-rctom\/submission\/predictive-policing-promoting-peace-or-perpetuating-prejudice\/"]}]},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-rctom\/submission\/predictive-policing-promoting-peace-or-perpetuating-prejudice\/#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-rctom\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2018\/11\/inquisitr.jpg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-rctom\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2018\/11\/inquisitr.jpg","width":940,"height":545,"caption":"<> on December 9, 2015 in Chicago, Illinois."},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-rctom\/submission\/predictive-policing-promoting-peace-or-perpetuating-prejudice\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-rctom\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"Submissions","item":"https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-rctom\/submission\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":3,"name":"Predictive Policing: Promoting Peace or Perpetuating Prejudice?"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-rctom\/#website","url":"https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-rctom\/","name":"Technology and Operations Management","description":"MBA Student Perspectives","potentialAction":[{"@type":"性视界Action","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-rctom\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"en-US"}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-rctom\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/hck-submission\/33228","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-rctom\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/hck-submission"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-rctom\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/hck-submission"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-rctom\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/11788"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-rctom\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=33228"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-rctom\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/hck-submission\/33228\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-rctom\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/33229"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-rctom\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=33228"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-rctom\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=33228"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}