1.5 million Indians suffered from cancer in 2016, projected to grow to 1.7 million in 2020. At the same time, the country faces an acute affordability and awareness issue- only 12.5% patients come in for treatment at early stages [1]. As a result, 736,000 Indians died from cancer in 2016, projected to go up to 880,000 in 2020 [1]. These problems are compounded by the severe supply gap- the country has only 1,000 oncologists (ratio of 1:1500). In contrast the US has a ratio of 1:100. [2]<\/p>\n
While the country grapples with lack of access and affordability, quality is also a major challenge. Many oncologists are unable to diagnose cancer early on, struggling to keep up with the large volume of research, medical records and clinical trials. Further, doctors face an increasing battle to stay up to date about best practices in treatment and care management.\u00a0[3]<\/p>\n
In this context, the use of AI to help detect cancer can be a potential solution. AI could improve quality of diagnosis and reduce costs (while increasing access) by reducing the time per oncologist spends on diagnosis (so that it can increase the number of patients served by limited oncologists)- so that oncologists\u2019 critical time is used for human-intensive tasks such as consultation and treatment. [4]<\/p>\n
Large hospital networks in India such as Apollo, Manipal and Fortis, which together serve ~60% of India\u2019s organized private market [5] have the opportunity and responsibility to adopt new innovative ways of delivering care to patients. In 2016, Manipal (~12.5% of the organized private market share [5]) announced the national launch of IBM Watson across 6 hospitals. [3] The idea is to use a cognitive computing platform, to provide information and insights to physicians to help them identify personalized, evidence-based cancer care options across India. Manipal oncologists can access IBM Watson for Oncology for patients with breast, colorectal and lung cancer that are registered with a Manipal facility pan-India.<\/p>\n
12 oncologists have been trained to use this solution to help patients in better diagnosis and administer treatment accordingly. In the long term, Manipal hopes to gain 3 benefits for its oncologists: [6]<\/p>\n
Manipal hospitals tested the technology before deploying it, in a double-blinded study. Watson\u2019s evidence-based recommendations was concordant with 90% of Manipal\u2019s recommendations on its most complex cases. [7]<\/p>\n
One challenge is that Watson or AI in cancer detection is in early stages and hasn\u2019t proven to be significantly better than human approach. Especially in the case of rare cancers or recommending personalized treatment, keeping up with the rapidly evolving cancer treatments has been tougher than imagined. Manipal found that Watson was similar to doctors\u2019 recommendations in most of the cases, so it has stopped using it for every case and now uses it only for 30% of the complex cases- 9% of which are influenced by care recommended by Watson. [8]<\/p>\n
This fails the purpose of deploying Watson in the first place. In the Indian context, where 87.5% patients are not able to access early care [1], success of Watson or any AI based system will be determined by its ability to increase access for a majority of the population by reducing costs. To be of use in the Indian context, Manipal should use Watson in all cases rather than the complex ones, so that oncologists\u2019 limited time is freed up to consult a much higher proportion of patients, potentially in areas which don\u2019t have a doctor. This will not only increase access, but also improve quality as Watson will have more data from Indian patients, which it is lacking now. In the long term, it also needs to serve the rural population (70% of India\u2019s population) which is not served by the overwhelmingly urban oncologist base. One potential solution is to combine the use of telemedicine with IBM Watson to reach patients in remote areas.<\/p>\n
But some pertinent questions remain unanswered. Who will pay for the cost? Unlike any other country in the world, an overwhelming majority of costs in India are being borne by patients (65% of healthcare costs are out of pocket [9]). Can the use of Watson increase the number of patients treated to an extent that it reduces the average cost? Even if it does, what about data integrity? EMRs are just being adopted in India. In such an environment is it sustainable to make diagnosis dependent on a system such as Watson which relies on and gets better with higher quality of data?<\/p>\n
(799 words)<\/p>\n
Sources:<\/strong><\/p>\n 1 <\/sup>Press Trust of India, \u201cOver 17 lakh new cancer cases in India by 2020: ICMR\u201d, India Today, May 18, 2016, https:\/\/www.indiatoday.in\/pti-feed\/story\/over-17-lakh-new-cancer-cases-in-india-by-2020-icmr-610839-2016-05-18<\/a>, accessed November 2018<\/p>\n 2<\/sup> Sushmi Dey, \u201cIndia has 1.8 mn cancer patients but only one oncologist to terat every 2000\u201d, Business Standard, May 24, 2014, https:\/\/www.business-standard.com\/article\/current-affairs\/india-has-1-8-mn-cancer-patients-but-only-one-oncologist-to-treat-every-2-000-114052401140_1.html<\/a>, accessed November 2018<\/p>\n 3<\/sup> IBM, \u201cManipal Hospitals announces national launch of IBM Watson for oncology\u201d, https:\/\/www-03.ibm.com\/press\/in\/en\/pressrelease\/50290.wss<\/a>, accessed November 2018<\/p>\n 4<\/sup> Rashmi Mabiyan, \u201cHow artificial intelligence can help transform Indian healthcare\u201d, May 23, 2018, https:\/\/health.economictimes.indiatimes.com\/news\/health-it\/how-artificial-intelligence-can-help-transform-indian-healthcare\/64285489<\/a>, accessed November 2018<\/p>\n 5<\/sup> India Brand Equity Foundation, \u201cHealthcare\u201d, January 2017, https:\/\/www.ibef.org\/download\/Healthcare-January-2017.pdf<\/a>, accessed November 2018<\/p>\n 6 <\/sup>IBM, \u201cWatson for Oncology\u201d, https:\/\/www.ibm.com\/watson\/in-en\/health\/oncology-and-genomics\/oncology\/<\/a>, accessed November 2018<\/p>\n 7<\/sup> Presentation by Prof. Dr. S.P. Somashekhar, Chairman, Manipal Comprehensive Cancer Center, Manipal Hospitals, Bangalore, India at the San Antonio Breast Cancer Symposium, December 9th, 2016- http:\/\/www.ascopost.com\/News\/44214<\/a>, accessed November 2018<\/p>\n 8<\/sup> Daniela Hernandez and Ted Greenwald, \u201cIBM has a Watson Dilemma\u201d, The Wall Street Journal, August 11, 2018, https:\/\/www.wsj.com\/articles\/ibm-bet-billions-that-watson-could-improve-cancer-treatment-it-hasnt-worked-1533961147<\/a>, accessed November 2018<\/p>\n