{"id":25476,"date":"2017-11-15T20:04:11","date_gmt":"2017-11-16T01:04:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/digital.hbs.edu\/platform-rctom\/submission\/indonesias-ore-export-ban-and-its-impact-on-freeport-mcmorans-grasberg-mine\/"},"modified":"2017-11-15T20:10:53","modified_gmt":"2017-11-16T01:10:53","slug":"indonesias-ore-export-ban-and-its-impact-on-freeport-mcmorans-grasberg-mine","status":"publish","type":"hck-submission","link":"https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-rctom\/submission\/indonesias-ore-export-ban-and-its-impact-on-freeport-mcmorans-grasberg-mine\/","title":{"rendered":"Indonesia\u2019s Ore Export Ban and its Impact on Freeport-McMoRan\u2019s Grasberg Mine"},"content":{"rendered":"

Indonesian Mining Industry (2009-2017):<\/strong><\/p>\n

In an attempt to build up Indonesia\u2019s smelting industry and encourage domestic processing of mineral ores, and thereby increase tax revenue and jobs otherwise loss due to the exporting of ores to other countries for refining, the Indonesian government announced in 2009 a raw ore export ban to take effect on January 12th<\/sup>, 2014[1]<\/a>. The estimated cost to build the required smelters was $20 billion, and mining companies were given 5 years to execute, 66 of which said they would[2]<\/a>. Among those levered to the ore export ban is Freeport-McMoRan, a US based mining company whose Grasberg mine, situated in Indonesia, is the world\u2019s largest gold mine and second largest copper mine[3]<\/a>. The export ban thus posed considerable questions about Freeport\u2019s future in Indonesia, the company\u2019s copper concentrate supply chain, as well as the impact on the global supply of base metals.<\/p>\n

Indonesia produces 15% of global nickel supply, and 3% of the copper market[4]<\/a>, with mineral shipments in 2012 representing 5% of Indonesia\u2019s GDP or $10.4B[5]<\/a>. In 2014, high-grade nickel ore and bauxite exports representing $2 billion per year were banned; however, certain semi-processed copper, manganese, lead, zinc and iron ore concentrates were permitted to continue being shipped until 2017, albeit subjected to new export taxes[6]<\/strong><\/a>. Concentrates are an intermediate, semi-processed material between extracted ore and fully refined metal[7]<\/a>. Tin and coal shipments were not affected.<\/p>\n

Mixed Signals \u2013 Indonesian Government misses 2016 Budget, Export Ban Eased (2017-Present):<\/strong><\/p>\n

Announced as of January 2017, low-grade nickel ores (< 1.7% Ni) and certain amounts of bauxite were allowed to be shipped for companies already in the process of building smelters[8]<\/a>. Scaling back the export ban sent mixed signals throughout the capitals markets as Indonesia tried to stimulate its government coiffeurs, missing its 2016 budget revenue by $17.6B[9]<\/a>. Would the export ban and concentrate tariffs be removed altogether?<\/p>\n

Impact on Freeport-McMoRan:<\/strong><\/p>\n

Freeport-McMoRan\u2019s Grasberg mine has been operating since 1972, represents 73% of Indonesia\u2019s copper production, is one of the country\u2019s largest taxpayers, and produced 1\/5th<\/sup> of Freeport\u2019s $14.8B in revenue in 2016[10]<\/a>. The political uncertainty and threat of an export ban posed considerable risk if applied to copper concentrates, potentially resulting in Grasberg having to cut production by 60% and lay off half of its 15,000 local employees[11]<\/a>. Over 100 mining companies have been forced to shut down due to the export ban[12]<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Grasberg Expansion Uncertainty: <\/strong><\/p>\n

Freeport is entering the final years of the open pit which will convert to solely underground block-caving mining. The company has already spent billions of dollars in capitalized development in order to access the underground portion of the deposit, and anticipates total capex of over $15B in order to construct the largest underground mine in the world[13]<\/a>. Analysts believe Freeport will invest $17-$20 billion in Indonesia by 2031[14]<\/a>. The company believes the export tax and ban violates their current contract and, until recently, has refused to build a new copper smelter. However, Grasberg\u2019s mining permit is set to expire in 2021, and the Indonesian government has refused to start negotiations until 2019.<\/p>\n

Grasberg Divestment 2017 \u2013 Further Tensions Down the Tunnel? <\/strong><\/p>\n

In August 2017, Freeport announced it would sell to the Indonesian government at \u201cfair market value\u201d an additional 41.64% stake in Grasberg, increasing the government\u2019s ownership from 9% to 51%. Freeport also agreed to build a second copper smelter, invest $20 billion in the mine, and pay higher taxes and royalties. In return Freeport will have the option to apply for a 10-year extension to its mining license currently set to expire in 2021, with the potential to extend to 2041[15]<\/a>. Grasberg\u2019s reserves are currently set to last until 2039[16]<\/a>.<\/p>\n

However, tension remains on the horizon between Freeport and the Indonesian government over price and timing. In 2016 Freeport offered a 10.64% stake in Grasberg that valued the deposit at $16.2 billion, while the Indonesian government countered at $630 million[17]<\/a>. With no timeline for divestiture and no agreed upon price, it would appear that further battles lie ahead.<\/p>\n

Going Forward:<\/strong><\/p>\n

The gap in valuation with the Indonesian government, permitting constraints, and substantial project risk means that Freeport could consider divesting Grasberg entirely to another mining company. Grasberg would likely have to be sold at a considerable discount; however, doing so may be preferred over expropriation. A second option is Freeport could put Grasberg on care-and-maintenance in order to hit the government\u2019s coiffeurs and apply pressure to finalize an equitable deal. The challenge is Grasberg provides Freeport with considerable cash flow. Lastly, albeit unlikely, Freeport and the Indonesian government could agree to seek international arbitrage over the divestiture sale price.<\/p>\n

What should Freeport do? Given the recent easing of the nickel ore export ban, should Freeport delay divestiture until the Indonesian 2019 general election?<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

[Word count: 791]<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

[1]<\/a> Yoga Rusmana, Eko Listiyorini, \u201cIndonesia\u2019s Export Ban Flip-Flop Sows Confusion: QuickTake Q&A,\u201d Bloomberg Markets, [https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2017-02-14\/indonesia-s-export-ban-flip-flop-sows-confusion-quicktake-q-a], accessed November 2017.<\/p>\n

[2]<\/a> Ibid.<\/p>\n

[3]<\/a> Reuters, \u201cAfter Pushback, Indonesia Is Likely to Ease Ban on Mineral Exports,\u201d New York Times<\/em>, January 11, 2014, [https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2014\/01\/12\/business\/international\/after-pushback-indonesia-is-likely-to-ease-ban-on-mineral-exports.html], accessed November 2017.<\/p>\n

[4]<\/a> Joe Cochrane, \u201cIndonesia Announces Export Ban on Raw Ore,\u201d New York Times, <\/em>January 12, 2014, [https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2014\/01\/13\/business\/international\/indonesia-announces-export-ban-on-raw-ore.html], accessed November 2017.<\/p>\n

[5]<\/a> Reuters, \u201cAfter Pushback, Indonesia Is Likely to Ease Ban on Mineral Exports,\u201d New York Times<\/em>, January 11, 2014, [https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2014\/01\/12\/business\/international\/after-pushback-indonesia-is-likely-to-ease-ban-on-mineral-exports.html], accessed November 2017.<\/p>\n

[6]<\/a> Ibid.<\/p>\n

[7]<\/a> Wikipedia, \u201cCopper extraction,\u201d https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Copper_extraction#Concentrate_and_copper_marketing, accessed November 2017.<\/p>\n

[8]<\/a> Wilda Asmarini, Bernadette Christina Munthe, \u201cIndonesia eases export ban on nickel ore, bauxite,\u201d Reuters, [https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/article\/us-indonesia-mining-exports\/indonesia-eases-export-ban-on-nickel-ore-bauxite-idUSKBN14W1TZ], accessed November 2017.<\/p>\n

[9]<\/a> Ibid.<\/p>\n

[10]<\/a> Freeport-McMoRan, Inc., December 31, 2016 Form 10-K, [https:\/\/www.sec.gov\/Archives\/edgar\/data\/831259\/000083125917000012\/a2016form10-k.htm], accessed November 2017.<\/p>\n

[11]<\/a> Reuters, \u201cAfter Pushback, Indonesia Is Likely to Ease Ban on Mineral Exports,\u201d New York Times<\/em>, January 11, 2014, [https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2014\/01\/12\/business\/international\/after-pushback-indonesia-is-likely-to-ease-ban-on-mineral-exports.html], accessed November 2017.<\/p>\n

[12]<\/a> Ibid.<\/p>\n

[13]<\/a> Reuters, \u201cHow Freeport Reached a Mining Deal in Indonesia,\u201d New York Times, <\/em>August 25, 2014, [https:\/\/www.nytimes.rcom\/2014\/08\/26\/business\/international\/how-freeport-reached-a-mining-deal-in-indonesia.html], accessed November 2017.<\/p>\n

[14]<\/a> David Fickling, \u201cFreeport 1; Indonesia 0,\u201d Bloomberg Gadfly, [https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/gadfly\/articles\/2017-08-30\/freeport-1-indonesia-0], accessed November 2017.<\/p>\n

[15]<\/a> Fergus Jensen, \u201cCORRECTED-Indonesia cheers Freeport \u201cwin\u201d as Grasberg valuation fight looms,\u201d Reuters, [https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/article\/indonesia-freeport\/corrected-indonesia-cheers-freeport-win-as-grasberg-valuation-fight-looms-idUSL4N1LG2QO], accessed November 2017.<\/p>\n

[16]<\/a> Freeport-McMoRan, \u201cDevelopment & Construction Update of the Grasberg Block Cave Mine\u201d (PDF file), downloaded from MassMin 2016 website, [http:\/\/www.massmin2016.com\/Media\/MASSMIN2016\/presentations\/1140_Brannon.pdf], accessed November 2017.<\/p>\n

[17]<\/a> Fergus Jensen, \u201cCORRECTED-Indonesia cheers Freeport \u201cwin\u201d as Grasberg valuation fight looms,\u201d Reuters, [https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/article\/indonesia-freeport\/corrected-indonesia-cheers-freeport-win-as-grasberg-valuation-fight-looms-idUSL4N1LG2QO], accessed November 2017.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

How will Indonesia’s ore export ban impact the world’s largest gold mine and second largest copper mine, Freeport-McMoRan’s copper concentrate supply chain, and the global base metals market?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":9511,"featured_media":25477,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","template":"","categories":[1429,3816,3239,3736],"class_list":["post-25476","hck-submission","type-hck-submission","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-copper","category-export","category-isolationism","category-metals-and-mining","hck-taxonomy-organization-freeport-mcmoran","hck-taxonomy-industry-mining","hck-taxonomy-country-indonesia"],"connected_submission_link":"https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-rctom\/assignment\/rc-tom-challenge-2017\/","yoast_head":"\nIndonesia\u2019s Ore Export Ban and its Impact on Freeport-McMoRan\u2019s Grasberg Mine - Technology and Operations Management<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-rctom\/submission\/indonesias-ore-export-ban-and-its-impact-on-freeport-mcmorans-grasberg-mine\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Indonesia\u2019s Ore Export Ban and its Impact on Freeport-McMoRan\u2019s Grasberg Mine - 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