{"id":24470,"date":"2017-11-15T17:44:21","date_gmt":"2017-11-15T22:44:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/digital.hbs.edu\/platform-rctom\/submission\/uber-paving-the-way-for-self-driving-trucks\/"},"modified":"2017-11-15T17:59:56","modified_gmt":"2017-11-15T22:59:56","slug":"uber-paving-the-way-for-self-driving-trucks","status":"publish","type":"hck-submission","link":"https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-rctom\/submission\/uber-paving-the-way-for-self-driving-trucks\/","title":{"rendered":"Uber: Paving the Way for Self-driving Trucks"},"content":{"rendered":"

In the last years, there have been breakthrough advancements in the development of autonomous vehicles. What seemed like science fiction a decade ago is very close to being accomplished. Companies like Uber, Google and Tesla have begun the race to develop the first fully functional prototypes. But contrary to what many might think, transportation experts expect that the earliest applications will be in self-driving trucks, not cars. Trucking routes usually consist of long-haul drives on highways, which make them more predictable compared to cities [1]. In this particular industry, Otto (acquired by Uber in 2016) is one of the main players. In October of last year, Otto managed to transport 50,000 cans of Budweiser, making this the first commercial delivery by an autonomous truck [2].<\/p>\n

https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=Qb0Kzb3haK8<\/a><\/p>\n

Problems in the Trucking Industry<\/strong><\/p>\n

In the U.S. more than 70%\u00a0of goods are transported by trucks, which translates into a $700 billion industry [3] [4]. Despite being the preferred way of moving goods across the country, traditional trucking has severe drawbacks. Truck and bus crashes are responsible for 4,000 deaths and 100,000 injuries a year, 90% of them caused by driver error [5]. Other important issues are truck driver shortages and turnover rate. In 2017 the American Trucking Association calculated that there was a 50,000 shortage of truck drivers and that yearly turnover rate was 90%. If the trend continued the shortage of truck drivers will hit 174,000 by 2026 [6]. Self-driving trucks, even if not fully autonomous, have the potential to drastically reduce these problems by cutting down the number of accidents and reducing drivers\u2019 workload.<\/p>\n

Figure 1: Projections of Truck Driver Shortages<\/strong><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>
Source: American Trucking Association<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

The Road Ahead<\/strong><\/p>\n

With the truck Uber used for the Budweiser it reached a \u201cLevel 4\u201d autonomy, which meant that the vehicle was \u201cfully autonomous\u201d in a certain domain (in this case the highway) [7] [8]. In the next couple of years, Uber planned to continue to develop the technology so that trucks were able to handle any situation they encountered. Other areas of opportunity where improving acceleration, deceleration and lane control. They were also working on predicting behavior for other drivers and dealing with changing weather [2]. Although reaching \u201cLevel 5\u201d autonomy was the ultimate goal, in the short-term Uber would concentrate on improving \u201cLevel 4\u201d performance. That meant that the self-driving trucks will still need a human driver especially in the cities, where the truck couldn\u2019t operate on its own.<\/p>\n

Figure 2: Autonomous Vehicle Levels<\/strong><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Uber estimates that it could reach \u201cfully autonomous\u201d trucks at a large scale within the next decade. Lior Ron, co-founder of Otto, expects that by that time driverless trucks would routinely drive throughout the U.S. highways [9]. This would have significant effects on the efficiency of the transport industry as it would reduce labor and increase fuel efficiency. Labor and fuel are the most important costs of operating a truck, representing 40% and 25% of the total cost respectively [10]. Even if trucks couldn\u2019t reach \u201cLevel 5\u201d autonomy and would still require a driver, labor could be better utilized and substantial cost reduction could be achieved.<\/p>\n

Recommendations<\/strong><\/p>\n

Even though the self-driving truck industry may appear very attractive, it faces intense competition. Competitors such as Google and Tesla are making huge investments to develop competing technology. This industry is attracting billions of dollars from start-ups to the biggest trucking operators [4]. Given that \u201cLevel 5\u201d autonomy is still far away from a technology and regulatory standpoint it is important for Uber to begin with driver assistance technology. Building a commercially viable prototype, even if not fully autonomous will allow the company to slowly enter the industry and be a step ahead of the competition. Incremental changes in this technology can have big impacts on fuel efficiency, labor cost and churn rate which would make it an attractive product.<\/p>\n

The ability to have trucks on the road will also allow Uber to quickly improve the technology. By analyzing in real conditions when and how human drivers take control of the vehicle can help the company fine-tune their algorithms. The more data that can be collected, the more autonomous the vehicle will be as it will learn how to act in a wider range of scenarios. Uber has a competitive advantage compared to competitors in this regard. Having access to tens of thousands of drivers in hundreds of cities could help the company in this data collection stage. Even though autonomous trucks and cars are different, there are still conclusions that could be drawn using Uber drivers.<\/p>\n

Even though there has been a lot of advancements in the industry, there are still many open questions. How can Uber and other competitors lobby for legislation that will allow self-driving trucks at the expense truck driving jobs? How many years will it take to produce the first commercially viable self-driving truck? Is there enough space in the industry for a few players or is it a \u201cwinner takes it all\u201d market?<\/p>\n

(795 words)<\/p>\n

____________________<\/p>\n

[1] Sage, A. (2016, October 25). Uber’s Otto hauls Budweiser across Colorado in self-driving truck. Retrieved from Reuters: https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/article\/us-uber-trucking-beer\/ubers-otto-hauls-budweiser-across-colorado-in-self-driving-truck-idUSKCN12P13N<\/p>\n

[2] Davis, A. (2016, October 25). Uber’s self-driving truck makes its first delivery: 50,000 beers. Retrieved from Wired: https:\/\/www.wired.com\/2016\/10\/ubers-self-driving-truck-makes-first-delivery-50000-beers\/<\/p>\n

[3] Ockedahl, C. (2016, May 23). Six Stats That Reveal The State Of The U.S. Trucking Industry. Retrieved from Forbes: https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/sites\/trucksdotcom\/2016\/05\/23\/a-glance-at-the-state-of-the-trucking-industry\/#427675583d84<\/p>\n

[4] Dougherty, C. (2017, November 13). Self-Driving Trucks May Be Closer Than They Appear. Retrieved from New York Times: https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2017\/11\/13\/business\/self-driving-trucks.html<\/p>\n

[5] Freedman, D. (2017). Tractor-trailers without a human at the wheel will soon barrel onto highways near you. What will this mean for the nation\u2019s 1.7 million truck drivers? Retrieved from MIT Technology Review: https:\/\/www.technologyreview.com\/s\/603493\/10-breakthrough-technologies-2017-self-driving-trucks\/<\/p>\n

[6] Costello, B. (2017). Truck Driver Shortage Analysis 2017. American Trucking Association.<\/p>\n

[7] Davis, A. (2016, August 26). Everyone Wants a Level 5 Self-Driving Car – Here’s What that Means. Retrieved from Wired: https:\/\/www.wired.com\/2016\/08\/self-driving-car-levels-sae-nhtsa\/<\/p>\n

[8] On-Road Automated Driving Committee. (2016). Taxonomy and Definitions for Terms Related to Driving Automation Systems for On-Road Motor Vehicles. SAE International.<\/p>\n

[9] Vanian, J. (2017, March 27). In 10 Years, Artificial Intelligence Will Transform Trucking, Says Otto Exec. Retrieved from Fortune: http:\/\/fortune.com\/2017\/03\/27\/uber-otto-artificial-intelligence-truck-driving\/<\/p>\n

[10] Murray, D., & Torrey, W. F. (2016). An Analysis of the Operational Costs of Trucking: 2016 Update. American Transportation Research Institute, Arlington.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

How Uber is disrupting trucking with autonomous vehicles and what additional advancements can we expect in the future.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":9510,"featured_media":24471,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","template":"","categories":[471,1802,2123,2079,1094,8],"class_list":["post-24470","hck-submission","type-hck-submission","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-automation","category-autonomous-vehicles","category-digitalization","category-self-driving","category-trucks","category-uber","hck-taxonomy-organization-uber","hck-taxonomy-industry-technology","hck-taxonomy-country-united-states"],"connected_submission_link":"https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-rctom\/assignment\/rc-tom-challenge-2017\/","yoast_head":"\nUber: Paving the Way for Self-driving Trucks - Technology and Operations Management<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-rctom\/submission\/uber-paving-the-way-for-self-driving-trucks\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Uber: Paving the Way for Self-driving Trucks - 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