{"id":22480,"date":"2017-11-15T19:27:10","date_gmt":"2017-11-16T00:27:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/digital.hbs.edu\/platform-rctom\/submission\/superstorms-are-redefining-the-meaning-of-underwater-homes\/"},"modified":"2017-11-15T19:27:10","modified_gmt":"2017-11-16T00:27:10","slug":"land-ho-howard-hughes-should-keep-watch-for-drier-real-estate","status":"publish","type":"hck-submission","link":"https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-rctom\/submission\/land-ho-howard-hughes-should-keep-watch-for-drier-real-estate\/","title":{"rendered":"Land Ho! Howard Hughes Should Keep Watch for Drier Real Estate"},"content":{"rendered":"

Howard Hughes Corporation (HHC) is a developer and operator of Master Planned Communities (MPCs), which are small cities located across the US. HHC meticulously plans each MPC, building residential and commercial properties, attracting tenants, and selling land\/condos to third-party developers. Inventory for HHC takes the form of land and buildings which are held for years or decades before being sold. Because HHC holds this inventory for so many years and its value changes based on supply\/demand, long-term trends such as climate change will play a crucial role in the monetization of the Company\u2019s assets.<\/p>\n

The impact of climate change on real estate inventory is a newly emerging topic. The question remains as to whether people will change their geographic preferences because of climate change. Hugh Gladwin, professor of anthropology at Florida International University, believes that \u201cthere\u2019s extra value in [coastal] property, [but] climate change, insofar as it increases risks for those properties from any specific set of hazards \u2014 like flooding and storm surge \u2014 will decrease value [1].\u201d This sentiment was also addressed by the Scientific American, claiming that \u201creal estate investment may no longer be just about the next hot neighborhood, it may also now be about the next dry neighborhood [1].\u201d Unfortunately for HHC, its portfolio of assets contains properties in Houston, Maryland, Miami, Hawaii, and New York, among other cities. These states have some of the highest predicted property losses in the country, according to data compiled by NOAA and Zillow below [2]:<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Exacerbating the risk potential for HHC is the rising frequency of heavy precipitation events. According to data compiled by the National Climate Assessment below, the 2000s saw 40% more heavy precipitation events than the average decade from 1900-1960 [3].<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Houston in particular has experienced three 500-year floods (floods that have a 1 in 500 chance of occurring) in the last three years [3]. Currently, HHC\u2019s largest MPC is called the Woodlands, which is located ~30 miles north of Houston. Despite the recent storms, HHC management is committed to environmental sustainability in the Woodlands. The Woodlands vision statement begins with: \u201cThe Woodlands, our dynamic hometown within a natural forest, is known for its balance between man and nature.\u201d In bringing this vision to action, HHC invests meaningfully in environmental education programs, recycling programs, and water\/forest preservation [4]. In addition to these actions, Management is keenly focused on building LEED certified properties (environmental sustainability certification). The Company\u2019s Ward Village MPC in Hawaii is the largest Platinum Certified LEED Neighborhood Development (LEED-ND) project in the country and the only LEED-ND Platinum Certified project in Hawaii [5]. Broadly speaking, management is very much focused on operating sustainably within its current asset portfolio. Going forward, a key focus will be managing the geographic composition of HHC\u2019s coastal property portfolio in light of climate change.<\/p>\n

In Houston and Maryland, HHC\u2019s MPCs are in close proximity, but not directly in harm\u2019s way, of hurricanes and floods. Management has indicated it is confident in the safety of its Houston properties from storms, as all development is done beyond the 100-year flood line. These property values could benefit from Houston citizens moving to the neighboring Woodlands because of the rising frequency of storms in Houston, as noted above. In Hawaii and New York, HHC\u2019s properties are waterfront and very much in hurricane\/flood zones (flood zones in each city are indicated by blue dots below) [2]. From a strategic perspective going forward, it could be important for HHC to consider potentially monetizing these assets sooner rather than later.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Rather than investing in waterfront properties in the US, HHC should consider shifting its inventory internationally. According to Michael Bloomberg, \u201cCities that can harness public and private capital and competency to build out efficient infrastructure will be far more competitive than their less prescient peers in rapidly urbanizing 21st<\/sup> century [6].\u201d One example of such a city is New Songdo City in South Korea. The city is newly constructed and centered around a park, \u201cwith 40% of the city being designated as green, all buildings LEED certified, an extensive public-transport network, a fleet of electric water taxis on its Venice-like canals, high-speed rail to Seoul, and minimal accommodation to automobiles [6].\u201d HHC can leverage its experience with developing environmentally friendly cities to shift its supply chain to countries such as China and India, which would benefit massively from a city planned like New Songdo City.<\/p>\n

HHC may be uniquely positioned to take advantage of this trend. Key elements of HHC\u2019s success in foreign markets will be: (i) the transferability of HHC management\u2019s know-how from developed markets in the US to emerging markets such as China\/India, and (ii) regulatory\/legal restrictions on US companies owning\/developing large pieces of property in emerging markets. (783 words)<\/p>\n

References<\/h2>\n

[1] Climatecentral.org. (2017).\u00a0Here\u2019s How Climate Change Could Turn U.S. Real Estate Prices Upside Down<\/i>. [online] Available at: http:\/\/www.climatecentral.org\/news\/climate-change-us-real-estate-prices-21720 [Accessed 14 Nov. 2017].<\/p>\n

[2] Zillow Research. (2017).\u00a0Climate Change and Housing: Will a Rising Tide Sink All Homes? – Zillow Research<\/i>. [online] Available at: https:\/\/www.zillow.com\/research\/climate-change-underwater-homes-12890\/ [Accessed 14 Nov. 2017].<\/p>\n

[3] Washington Post. (2017).\u00a0Analysis | Houston is experiencing its third \u2018500-year\u2019 flood in 3 years. How is that possible?<\/i>. [online] Available at: https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/news\/wonk\/wp\/2017\/08\/29\/houston-is-experiencing-its-third-500-year-flood-in-3-years-how-is-that-possible\/?utm_term=.5847485323b1 [Accessed 14 Nov. 2017].<\/p>\n

[4] Thewoodlandstownship-tx.gov. (2017).\u00a0Environmental Services | The Woodlands Township, TX<\/i>. [online] Available at: https:\/\/www.thewoodlandstownship-tx.gov\/105\/Environmental-Services [Accessed 14 Nov. 2017].<\/p>\n

[5]\u00a0Businesswire.com. (2017).\u00a0Ward Village Becomes the Largest LEED-ND&reg; Platinum Certified Neighborhood in the United States<\/i>. [online] Available at: http:\/\/www.businesswire.com\/news\/home\/20131127005484\/en\/Ward-Village-Largest-LEED-ND%C2%AE-Platinum-Certified-Neighborhood [Accessed 14 Nov. 2017].<\/p>\n

[6] HBS Working Knowledge. (2017).\u00a0Designing Cities for a Sustainable Future<\/i>. [online] Available at: https:\/\/hbswk.hbs.edu\/item\/designing-cities-for-a-sustainable-future [Accessed 14 Nov. 2017].<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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