{"id":22136,"date":"2017-11-14T01:01:35","date_gmt":"2017-11-14T06:01:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/digital.hbs.edu\/platform-rctom\/submission\/digitalization-in-the-brazilian-energy-sector-forecast-or-react\/"},"modified":"2017-11-14T01:01:35","modified_gmt":"2017-11-14T06:01:35","slug":"digitalization-in-the-brazilian-energy-sector-time-for-disruption","status":"publish","type":"hck-submission","link":"https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-rctom\/submission\/digitalization-in-the-brazilian-energy-sector-time-for-disruption\/","title":{"rendered":"Digitalization in the Brazilian Energy Sector: Time for Disruption?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Fast-paced innovations have been disrupting several industries on the last decades. Despite having changed little in the last century, experts agree that on the next few decades it will be the energy sector\u2019s turn<a href=\"#_edn1\" name=\"_ednref1\">[1]<\/a>. Companies will have to adapt to the increasingly complex supply chain, as variable and decentralized energy sources will become more relevant. In Brazil, the System Operator can adapt through two different approaches: using technology either to further improve their forecasting systems, or to increase their reaction speed and effectiveness, interacting more frequently with the supply chain.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><strong>The Electric System Operator in Brazil<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>The energy sector is composed of a far-from-ordinary supply chain. In simple language, the product \u2013 electricity \u2013 is \u201cmanufactured\u201d by the <strong>generator<\/strong>, flows through the <strong>transmitter<\/strong>, and arrives at the <strong>distributor<\/strong>, who then sends it to the <strong>end-user<\/strong> (residential, commercial or industrial consumer). Bringing in more complexity is the fact that electricity is instantly perishable, meaning the supply-demand balance must be perfectly met at all instants. To guarantee this balance, another role \u2013 not present in any other supply chain \u2013 comes in: the <strong>System Operator<\/strong>.<a href=\"#_edn2\" name=\"_ednref2\">[2]<\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center\"><a href=\"https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-rctom\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2017\/11\/F1.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-22132\" src=\"https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-rctom\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2017\/11\/F1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"550\" height=\"243\" srcset=\"https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-rctom\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2017\/11\/F1.png 617w, https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-rctom\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2017\/11\/F1-300x133.png 300w, https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-rctom\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2017\/11\/F1-600x265.png 600w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px\" \/><\/a><br \/>\nFigure 1: Electricity Supply Chain<a href=\"#_edn3\" name=\"_ednref3\"><strong>[3]<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Energy is heavily regulated around the world, thus each country has its own system operator(s) with specific roles. In Brazil, the system operator is ONS \u2013 Operador Nacional do Sistema El\u00e9trico (National Electric System Operator), responsible for electricity planning, scheduling, operating, and analyzing, as well as evaluating grid expansion opportunities and integrating new units into it<a href=\"#_edn4\" name=\"_ednref4\">[4]<\/a>. They are the ones who order power plants to be turned on and off, as well as coordinate the usage of transmission lines.<\/p>\n<p>Brazil\u2019s electricity matrix relies mostly on hydropower (61.5% of total generation in 2016<a href=\"#_edn5\" name=\"_ednref5\">[5]<\/a>), which makes it unique: energy can be stored as water in reservoirs, and generation can be fine-tuned to match consumption by speeding up or down the turbines in hydro plants (thermic plants usually have long startup periods and standard, less flexible energy output). For this reason, ONS\u2019s approach to scheduling (matching supply with demand) has relied heavily on the major role water sources play in Brazil.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center\"><a href=\"https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-rctom\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2017\/11\/F2.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-22133\" src=\"https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-rctom\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2017\/11\/F2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"550\" height=\"235\" srcset=\"https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-rctom\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2017\/11\/F2.png 1734w, https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-rctom\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2017\/11\/F2-300x128.png 300w, https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-rctom\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2017\/11\/F2-768x328.png 768w, https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-rctom\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2017\/11\/F2-1024x437.png 1024w, https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-rctom\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2017\/11\/F2-600x256.png 600w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px\" \/><\/a><br \/>\nFigure 2: Brazil\u2019s Electricity Matrix (% of total consumption in 2015 and 2016)<a href=\"#_edn6\" name=\"_ednref6\"><strong>[6]<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n<p><strong>\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Digitalization and new Technologies in the Energy Sector<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>The energy sector is undergoing a series of different trends that might reshape it on the next few decades<a href=\"#_edn7\" name=\"_ednref7\">[7]<\/a>. With most impact to System Operators are the new generation sources (wind and solar), which will increase daily variability and lack of predictability into levels never seen before. In Brazil, the increasingly relevant wind power not only brings huge variability, but also raises the challenge of aligning several new decentralized plants spread across the territory. Matching supply and demand has never been so complex.<\/p>\n<p>Fortunately, to withstand this complexity, digitalization is also changing ONS\u2019s operation. Smart meters, remote controls, automated systems<a href=\"#_edn8\" name=\"_ednref8\">[8]<\/a>, real-time simulators, and other new technologies have increased their capability to predict, track, and respond to changes. The 2014 World Cup has been a unique opportunity to test great variability on the demand side<a href=\"#_edn9\" name=\"_ednref9\">[9]<\/a> (during the Brazil-Germany game, energy consumption fell ~30% in a matter of hours<a href=\"#_edn10\" name=\"_ednref10\">[10]<\/a>), and ONS was able to provide electricity uninterruptedly throughout the Cup. The temporary, short-term challenge was successful. Now, ONS needs to develop supply chain variability management into a long-term, lasting capability.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-rctom\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2017\/11\/F3.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-22134\" src=\"https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-rctom\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2017\/11\/F3.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"550\" height=\"288\" srcset=\"https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-rctom\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2017\/11\/F3.png 754w, https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-rctom\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2017\/11\/F3-300x157.png 300w, https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-rctom\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2017\/11\/F3-600x314.png 600w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center\">Figure 3: Comparison of Energy Consumption in Brazil<a href=\"#_edn11\" name=\"_ednref11\"><strong>[11]<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><strong>The future of ONS: which operating model to adopt?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Power generation variability can be managed in different ways. Traditionally, ONS has relied heavily on predicting demand with a 24-hour antecedence<a href=\"#_edn12\" name=\"_ednref12\">[12]<\/a>, matching supply and demand with the flexibility hydro plants provide. With the increased variability, ONS\u2019s prediction systems would have to consider several new factors (for example, wind speed), and more hydropower would have to be saved to offset shifts in wind production \u2013 resulting in more oil plants being used, increasing costs and environmental impact.<\/p>\n<p>An alternative approach for ONS would be to use digitalization to better interact with the supply chain, avoiding 24-hour in advance predictions, and scheduling on smaller periods (for example, 6-hour forecasts 4 times a day). This would improve reliability on forecasts, but would require a great shift in both ONS\u2019s and power generators\u2019 operating model. This alternative definitely brings long-term benefits for the Brazilian society, yet needs great alignment and buy-in from the whole supply chain.<\/p>\n<p>Is ONS ready to lead this disruption, or should they play a more passive role and wait for the government and other players to act? More generally, what role should companies play in disrupting highly regulated industries?<\/p>\n<p>(763 words)<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"#_ednref1\" name=\"_edn1\">[1]<\/a> O\u2019Brien Browne, \u201cThe Disruption And Global Transformation Of The Energy Industry,\u201d <em>Huffington Post, <\/em>February 27<sup>th<\/sup>, 2017, https:\/\/www.huffingtonpost.com\/entry\/the-energy-industry-disruption-and-global-transformation_us_58b428dbe4b0658fc20f97d9, accessed November 13<sup>th<\/sup>, 2017.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"#_ednref2\" name=\"_edn2\">[2]<\/a> Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO), \u201cNational Electricity Market,\u201d https:\/\/www.aemo.com.au\/Electricity\/ National-Electricity-Market-NEM, accessed November 2017.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"#_ednref3\" name=\"_edn3\">[3]<\/a> Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO), \u201cNational Electricity Market,\u201d https:\/\/www.aemo.com.au\/Electricity\/ National-Electricity-Market-NEM, accessed November 2017.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"#_ednref4\" name=\"_edn4\">[4]<\/a> Operador Nacional do Sistema El\u00e9trico (ONS), \u201cAtua\u00e7\u00e3o,\u201d http:\/\/ons.org.br\/pt\/paginas\/sobre-o-ons\/atuacao, accessed November 2017.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"#_ednref5\" name=\"_edn5\">[5]<\/a> Minist\u00e9rio de Minas e Energia (MME), \u201cResenha Energ\u00e9tica Brasileira 2016\u201d (PDF file), downloaded from MME website, http:\/\/www.mme.gov.br\/documents\/10584\/3580498\/02+-+Resenha+Energ%C3%A9tica+Brasileira+2017+-+ano+ref.+2016+%28PDF%29\/13d8d958-de50-4691-96e3-3ccf53f8e1e4?version=1.0, accessed November 13<sup>th<\/sup>, 2017.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"#_ednref6\" name=\"_edn6\">[6]<\/a> Minist\u00e9rio de Minas e Energia (MME), \u201cResenha Energ\u00e9tica Brasileira 2016\u201d (PDF file), downloaded from MME website, http:\/\/www.mme.gov.br\/documents\/10584\/3580498\/02+-+Resenha+Energ%C3%A9tica+Brasileira+2017+-+ano+ref.+2016+%28PDF%29\/13d8d958-de50-4691-96e3-3ccf53f8e1e4?version=1.0, accessed November 13<sup>th<\/sup>, 2017.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"#_ednref7\" name=\"_edn7\">[7]<\/a> Bain &amp; Company, \u201cFuture of Electricity\u201d (PDF file), downloaded from Bain &amp; Company website, http:\/\/www.bain.com\/Images\/WEF_Future_of_Electricity_2017.pdf, accessed November 13<sup>th<\/sup>, 2017.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"#_ednref8\" name=\"_edn8\">[8]<\/a> Bain &amp; Company, \u201cFuture of Electricity\u201d (PDF file), downloaded from Bain &amp; Company website, http:\/\/www.bain.com\/Images\/WEF_Future_of_Electricity_2017.pdf, accessed November 13<sup>th<\/sup>, 2017.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"#_ednref9\" name=\"_edn9\">[9]<\/a> \u201cBrazil Uses EPRI Training Simulator to Ensure High Reliability During World Cup,\u201d <em>T&amp;D World<\/em>, July 15<sup>th<\/sup>, 2014, http:\/\/www.tdworld.com\/test-monitor-control\/brazil-uses-epri-training-simulator-ensure-high-reliability-during-world-cup, accessed November 13<sup>th<\/sup>, 2017.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"#_ednref10\" name=\"_edn10\">[10]<\/a> Itaipu Binacional, \u201cJogo do Brasil na Copa faz Consumo de Energia El\u00e9trica Cair Quase 30%,\u201d https:\/\/www.itaipu.gov.py\/sala-de-imprensa\/noticia\/jogo-do-brasil-na-copa-faz-consumo-de-energia-eletrica-cair-quase-30, accessed November 13<sup>th<\/sup>, 2017.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"#_ednref11\" name=\"_edn11\">[11]<\/a> Itaipu Binacional, \u201cJogo do Brasil na Copa faz Consumo de Energia El\u00e9trica Cair Quase 30%,\u201d https:\/\/www.itaipu.gov.py\/sala-de-imprensa\/noticia\/jogo-do-brasil-na-copa-faz-consumo-de-energia-eletrica-cair-quase-30, accessed November 13<sup>th<\/sup>, 2017.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"#_ednref12\" name=\"_edn12\">[12]<\/a> Operador Nacional do Sistema El\u00e9trico (ONS), \u201cSubm\u00f3dulo 8.1 Dos Procedimentos de Rede\u201d (PDF file), downloaded from ONS website, http:\/\/ons.org.br\/_layouts\/download.aspx?SourceUrl=http:\/\/ons.org.br%2F ProcedimentosDeRede%2FM%C3%B3dulo%208%2FSubm%C3%B3dulo%208.1%2FSubm%C3%B3dulo%208.1.pdf, accessed November 13<sup>th<\/sup>, 2017.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>With the forthcoming digital disruption in the Energy Sector, ONS, Brazil&#039;s Electric System Operator, faces a critical decision regarding its future operation model.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10226,"featured_media":22137,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","template":"","categories":[2270,2109,2362,1930,3445,3446,1847],"class_list":["post-22136","hck-submission","type-hck-submission","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-digital-disruption","category-electric-grid","category-electric-utility","category-energy-distributor","category-forecasting","category-ons","category-wind-power","hck-taxonomy-organization-ons","hck-taxonomy-industry-energy","hck-taxonomy-country-brazil"],"connected_submission_link":"https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-rctom\/assignment\/rc-tom-challenge-2017\/","yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.3 - 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