{"id":13577,"date":"2016-11-04T18:00:08","date_gmt":"2016-11-04T22:00:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/digital.hbs.edu\/platform-rctom\/submission\/miami-is-going-to-sink-and-the-latin-americans-are-going-to-pay-for-it\/"},"modified":"2016-11-05T19:30:37","modified_gmt":"2016-11-05T23:30:37","slug":"miami-is-going-to-sink-and-the-latin-americans-are-going-to-pay-for-it","status":"publish","type":"hck-submission","link":"https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-rctom\/submission\/miami-is-going-to-sink-and-the-latin-americans-are-going-to-pay-for-it\/","title":{"rendered":"Miami is going to sink\u2026 and the Latin Americans are going to pay for it"},"content":{"rendered":"

Make no bones about it, Miami is going to sink.\u00a0 Ocean levels are rising globally at an increasing rate due to global warming, and Miami\u2019s low-elevation geography makes it especially vulnerable.\u00a0 The question is not if, but when (1).\u00a0 And the most recent data suggests that it may be sooner than you think (2).\u00a0 Despite this new data, Miami housing prices have continued to rise (2) and multi-billion construction projects are going ahead full steam (1), due in part to an influx in Latin American buyers looking for safe haven investments (3).<\/p>\n

How can real estate be booming when it\u2019s all going to be underwater soon enough?\u00a0 Perhaps because Miami insiders, including real estate developers and government officials, appear to be downplaying the issue (3).\u00a0 Indeed, many are incentivized to kick the can down the road \u2013 as long as na\u00efve buyers are buying, developers can keep developing, and the government can collect property taxes on inflated valuations.<\/p>\n

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Somebody help…<\/strong><\/p>\n

The local government has begun to take action, however.\u00a0 In 2010, the Miami-Dade county commission joined with other counties to form the Southwest Florida Regional Change Climate Compact (\u201cSFRCCC\u201d).\u00a0 The stated purpose of the compact is to take action to address \u201cthe vulnerability of the Southeast Florida region to the impacts of climate change\u201d (4).\u00a0 The SFRCCC produced a Regional Climate Action Plan (\u201cRCAP\u201d) to address these changes.\u00a0 One of the significant planned changes in the RCAP was \u201cto reduce greenhouse gas emissions.\u201d\u00a0 Additionally, the RCAP has identified areas which are \u201cuniquely vulnerable to climate impacts, including sea level rise, to serve as a planning tool and encourage technical assistance and funding opportunities.\u201d<\/p>\n

The SFRCCC also produced a report which analyzed the impact of a sea-level rise on some of the uniquely vulnerable areas, one of which is Miami. \u00a0 The report identifies significant risks to infrastructure when the sea level rises even a few feet.\u00a0 One example is the Turkey Point Nuclear Power Plant, which is located partially below sea level.\u00a0 The report states that the potential impact of a sea rise is unknown (5).\u00a0 Others have speculated that far more infrastructure is at risk in addition to Turkey Point, including the county\u2019s sewer systems and fresh water supply (1).<\/p>\n

The report also analyzed the impact that rising seas would have on residential areas. \u00a0The conclusion was that even a 3-foot rise in seas, which even the conservative forecasts preferred by the SFRCCC acknowledge will occur in the next 50-75 years, will expose significant portions of Miami and Miami Beach to flooding (see purple shading in below graphic) (5).<\/p>\n

\"Flooding<\/a>
Flooding impact of 3-ft sea level rise, according to Southeast Florida Regional Climate Change Compact<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Yet, the expected real estate losses due to this flooding is conspicuously missing from the report.\u00a0 Despite listing dollar figures for other parts of Southeast Florida, the Commission was unable to report a figure for Miami (5).\u00a0 The county\u2019s tax assessor however listed the combined real estate value at $250 billion (6).<\/p>\n

After acknowledging these risks, the SFRCCC also presents 110 action proposals in the report, noting that potential damage to the broader Southeast Florida region could reach into the trillions of dollars (5).\u00a0 Certainly, their efforts to identify the risks and make recommendations represent a positive step forward.\u00a0 Whether the recommendations will result in successful implementation, especially given the billions of funding required, remains to be seen.<\/p>\n

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Pulling the wool over?<\/strong><\/p>\n

One area in which the SFRCCC seems to not be doing enough is communication.\u00a0 For those who don\u2019t read the 181-page report and instead navigate to the FAQs on the SFRCCC website, it would seem that there is no cause for concern.\u00a0 In addressing the implications of sea level rise on the property market, the site blithely states that \u201cSoutheast Florida\u2019s property market continues to be one of the strongest in the U.S.. Each and every day, local governments in South Florida are joining forces to plan and invest in adaptive infrastructure to manage the threats of gradual sea level rise\u201d (7).\u00a0 The website also claims that Miami faces no unique threat due to rising seas, despite evidence that its low-elevation geography makes it and the surrounding area at unusual risk (8).<\/p>\n

The mixed messages that the SFRCCC is putting forth is contributing to the general indifference to sea level rise risk that Miami insiders display.\u00a0 This apathy allows for developers to keep developing, and Latin American buyers to continue buying, potentially unaware of the significant risks they are undertaking.\u00a0 The SFRCCC and the Miami-Dade county government need to publicly acknowledge the risks that are ahead for their city.\u00a0 This will be politically unpopular, as it will mean lower real estate values and lower tax revenues.\u00a0 But to pull the wool over the eyes of the naive, while Latin American buyers hold the bag, is deceptive and wrong.<\/p>\n

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Sources:<\/p>\n