{"id":13177,"date":"2016-11-04T17:44:09","date_gmt":"2016-11-04T21:44:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/digital.hbs.edu\/platform-rctom\/submission\/the-insatiable-appetite-of-climate-change\/"},"modified":"2016-11-04T17:51:48","modified_gmt":"2016-11-04T21:51:48","slug":"the-insatiable-appetite-of-climate-change","status":"publish","type":"hck-submission","link":"https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-rctom\/submission\/the-insatiable-appetite-of-climate-change\/","title":{"rendered":"The insatiable appetite of climate change"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u201cAs the world warms, a lot of adaptation will be required; where we are growing, the types of crops we are growing, and genetics<\/em>\u201d – Tony Nugteren, Assistant Vice President at Cargill1 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0<\/sup><\/p>\n

Climate change is eating your food!<\/strong><\/p>\n

2016 has been the 3rd<\/sup> consecutive hottest year since recordkeeping began and the scientific community attributes this to human emissions of greenhouse gases2<\/sup>.\u00a0 At this rate, by 2100, the world could end up 5 degree Celsius hotter3<\/sup>.<\/p>\n

How will this impact the food we eat?\u00a0 A LOT!\u00a0 Crop yields are sensitive to climate change such as extreme precipitation and temperature variations.\u00a0 Don\u2019t believe me?\u00a0 Look at the chart below.<\/p>\n

\"graph\"<\/a>
Crop Yields by Year in the US. Source: United States Global Change Research Program (2009 Report) [4]<\/figcaption><\/figure>\u00a0Such variations in crop yields can cause massive financial losses.\u00a0 For example, premature budding in a warm winter resulted in $220 million losses of Michigan cherries in 20125<\/sup>. Moreover, global crop yields could decline by up to 2% per decade from the 2030s while food demand will simultaneously increase by 14%6<\/sup>.<\/p>\n

In the United States, the Midwest and Southern states risk up to a 50%-70% loss in average annual crop yields (corn, soy, cotton, and wheat), without agricultural adaptation, per a report by \u2018The Risky Business Project\u20197<\/sup>.\u00a0 The report also goes on to predict that the Midwest will likely see overall agricultural losses for corn and wheat of 11%-69% across the region by 21008<\/sup>.<\/p>\n

Cargill should be worried, or shouldn\u2019t it?<\/strong><\/p>\n

Cargill is the largest privately owned company in the US9<\/sup> with a focus on providing food, beverage, and agricultural products to the world.\u00a0 Their revenues totaled $107.2B and (adjusted) net earnings $2.38B in fiscal 2016.<\/p>\n

\"fruits\"<\/a>
Source: Oklahoma Farm Report [11]<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Given its dependence on crops, Cargill\u2019s operations and finances are inherently linked to the risks of climate change.\u00a0 For example, Cargill\u2019s Q4 profits in 2014 dropped by 12% as a 4-year drought in the U.S. Southwest damaged pastures used to raise cows10<\/sup>. Such instances will only increase in frequency and intensity going forward as higher temperatures, variable precipitation, and water constraints lower crop quality and yields.<\/p>\n

While Cargill accepts these risks, it is fascinating that it remains optimistic about sustaining its operations, driven by a strong belief in the \u2018systemic resilience of agriculture\u2019 and the \u2018ingenuity of the world\u2019s farmers\u201912<\/sup>.\u00a0 Cargill\u2019s optimism goes so far as to state that \u201cwe are optimistic that the world can feed itself\u201d13<\/sup>.<\/p>\n

While this seems like a marketing gimmick on the face of it, designed to perhaps boost the confidence of its stakeholders, on digging deeper I found that Cargill is indeed walking the talk, taking targeted and strategic steps to both mitigate and adapt to climate change.<\/p>\n

Cargill\u2019s fight against climate change<\/strong><\/p>\n

MIT\u2019s joint program on the science and policy of global change (which Cargill has sponsored since 2008) points out the dual cause and effect relationship between climate change and agriculture \u2013 while climate change impacts agriculture, agriculture contributes to climate change as well.\u00a0 It does so in 2 main ways -one, by contributing to greenhouse gas emissions (20-25% of total emissions) and two, by causing deforestation14<\/sup>.<\/p>\n

Cargill is trying to address this through mitigation and adaptation efforts:<\/p>\n