  {"id":12736,"date":"2016-11-04T17:40:33","date_gmt":"2016-11-04T21:40:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/digital.hbs.edu\/platform-rctom\/submission\/is-the-world-running-out-of-chocolate\/"},"modified":"2016-11-04T17:51:57","modified_gmt":"2016-11-04T21:51:57","slug":"is-the-world-running-out-of-chocolate","status":"publish","type":"hck-submission","link":"https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-rctom\/submission\/is-the-world-running-out-of-chocolate\/","title":{"rendered":"Is the world running out of chocolate?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>The undeniable impact of climate change on big food production is already evident. Cocoa is one of the cash crops most affected by climate change, threatening the future of chocolate companies like Mars. Most of the world\u2019s cocoa today comes from West Africa (67%), mainly Ghana and the Ivory Coast, followed by South East Asia (25%) and then the Americas (8%) [1]. Cocoa farming supports 5 million smallholder farmers whose livelihoods depend on the crop [2]. There are two big shifts affecting Mars\u2019s core business streams. Extreme changes in temperature and precipitation will mean that cocoa yields from farms will continue to decrease yearly and by 2050, some of these regions might not be suitable for cocoa growth at all [3]. Exacerbating this is the rising cocoa demand, expected to rise by 3% annually, fueled by increased consumption in India and China and outstripping supply entirely by 2020 [4].<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-rctom\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2016\/11\/P1-BW046_COCOA__9U_20160113180610.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-13357 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-rctom\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2016\/11\/P1-BW046_COCOA__9U_20160113180610-300x144.jpg\" alt=\"p1-bw046_cocoa__9u_20160113180610\" width=\"639\" height=\"307\" srcset=\"https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-rctom\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2016\/11\/P1-BW046_COCOA__9U_20160113180610-300x144.jpg 300w, https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-rctom\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2016\/11\/P1-BW046_COCOA__9U_20160113180610-600x287.jpg 600w, https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-rctom\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2016\/11\/P1-BW046_COCOA__9U_20160113180610.jpg 700w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 639px) 100vw, 639px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center\"><em>Source : The Wall Street Journal, &#8220;The race to save cocoa&#8221;,\u00a0http:\/\/www.wsj.com\/articles\/chocolate-makers-fight-a-melting-supply-of-cocoa-1452738616\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left\">In order to sustain its business model, Mars has outlined a three-fold strategy. The first step is to improve yields on existing land by providing scientific and technological agricultural support for farmers. This not only sustains cocoa supply for Mars, but also incentivizes farmers with higher incomes and ensures that cocoa farming thrives as a financially secure, long-term livelihood choice for them. To aid this, Mars has set up a research center that looks into cocoa breeding, farming methods and other yield-improving practices [5]. Especially in countries like Ivory Coast, where climate change awareness is low and where government guidelines are non-existent, it becomes critical to supply farmers with tools, techniques and training to cultivate high-quality yields, a knowledge transfer facilitated by its many Cocoa Development Centers (CDC\u2019s) [6]. This initiative is expected to triple yields in 3-5 years [7]. Secondly, Mars is also using technology and innovation as a competitive advantage, working with IBM and the US government to map the cocoa genome to develop more resilient strains of cocoa that will thrive in extreme weather [8]. Lastly, Mars has committed to certifying their entire supply chain by 2020 to be sustainable[9]. Beyond the cocoa supply chain, Mars has also pledged to reducing its carbon-footprint across their entire supply chain, becoming carbon neutral by 2040 [10].<\/p>\n<p>While these efforts are commendable, there are several other avenues that Mars can explore further.<\/p>\n<p><b>Diversify Sourcing Locations : <\/b>The first is to future-proof their supply chain. There are predictive technology systems today that forecast climate change patterns and pinpoint the new regions that will be better suited for cocoa production, allowing Mars to re-engineer their sourcing strategy [11]. To an extent, this is why most chocolate companies, including Mars are looking to expand cocoa sources in Asia, across Indonesia, Malaysia and Vietnam [12].<\/p>\n<p><b>Credit and Capital : <\/b>Companies need to ensure that expansion into Asia does not come at the cost of clearing primary forests, where after the palm oil crisis, governments have issued strict deforestation policies. If land needs to be rehabilitated, then Mars will need to develop financing programs that will sustain farmers as they rehabilitate used land for new cocoa plantations. Research shows that cocoa yield is still only at 10% of what the theoretical yield is and this gap is largely attributed to lack of farmer resources [13]. If Mars can develop new business models that allow for lending credit and providing capital to their farmers, it will promote more land rehabilitation and more mechanization of farming practices, leading to more sustainable cocoa communities.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-rctom\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2016\/11\/farmer-value.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\" wp-image-13463 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-rctom\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2016\/11\/farmer-value-300x200.png\" alt=\"farmer-value\" width=\"473\" height=\"315\" srcset=\"https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-rctom\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2016\/11\/farmer-value-300x200.png 300w, https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-rctom\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2016\/11\/farmer-value.png 600w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 473px) 100vw, 473px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center\"><em>Source : Euromonitor, ICCO<\/em><\/p>\n<p><b>Increase Consumer Prices : <\/b>To reward farmers and support broader farmer financing, on the other end of the supply chain, Mars and the chocolate industry at large could look at increasing consumer prices.<\/p>\n<p><b>Technology assisted training: <\/b>Mars can also use technology to intensify information flow to and between farmers to build more collective intelligence on climate change and agricultural best practices, beyond the in-site CDC\u2019s. There is a growing number of tech social enterprises that develop mobile agricultural apps that provide farmers with real-time meteorological information and training on pests, fertilizers and soil composition to train farmers and continue to increase yields in a cost effective way, especially in markets where such information is not easily circulated or available.<\/p>\n<p><b>Economies of supply chain scale :<\/b> Lastly, one of the agricultural best practices that mitigate climate change effects on cocoa production is agroforestry which recommends planting cocoa along with other crops that provide shade[14]. Can Mars utilize their broader raw material supply chain to centralize farms across other key product ingredients like coffee? This would provide centralized sourcing units, creating economies of scale and improve productivity at the same time. Using the existing partnerships on big food sustainability, they could even form farming alliances with other consumer goods companies who could also participate in the initiative.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-rctom\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2016\/11\/evaluating-cocoa-agroforestry-systems-to-design-new-cropping-systems_lightbox.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-13668 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-rctom\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2016\/11\/evaluating-cocoa-agroforestry-systems-to-design-new-cropping-systems_lightbox-300x225.jpg\" alt=\"evaluating-cocoa-agroforestry-systems-to-design-new-cropping-systems_lightbox\" width=\"477\" height=\"358\" srcset=\"https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-rctom\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2016\/11\/evaluating-cocoa-agroforestry-systems-to-design-new-cropping-systems_lightbox-300x225.jpg 300w, https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-rctom\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2016\/11\/evaluating-cocoa-agroforestry-systems-to-design-new-cropping-systems_lightbox-600x450.jpg 600w, https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-rctom\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2016\/11\/evaluating-cocoa-agroforestry-systems-to-design-new-cropping-systems_lightbox.jpg 622w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 477px) 100vw, 477px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center\"><em>Source: CIRAD, Agricultural Research for Development,\u00a0http:\/\/www.cirad.fr\/en\/research-operations\/research-results\/2011\/evaluating-cocoa-agroforestry-systems-to-design-new-cropping-systems<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em><strong>Word Count &#8211; 785<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<p><strong>Endnotes<\/strong><\/p>\n<ol>\n<li>Mars : Caring for the future of cocoa, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.marsgcc.com\/global\/sustainability\/raw-materials\/cocoa\">http:\/\/www.marsgcc.com\/global\/sustainability\/raw-materials\/cocoa<\/a>, accessed on November 2, 2016<\/li>\n<li>Ibid<\/li>\n<li>O.Nieburg, \u201cHot chocolate: How will industry protect its key commodity from climate change?\u201d,April 28, 2015, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.confectionerynews.com\/Commodities\/Climate-change-and-cocoa-Chocolate-firms-action-to-temperature-rise?utm_source=copyright&amp;utm_medium=OnSite&amp;utm_campaign=copyright\">http:\/\/www.confectionerynews.com\/Commodities\/Climate-change-and-cocoa-Chocolate-firms-action-to-temperature-rise<\/a>, accessed on November 3, 2016<\/li>\n<li>\u00a0Mars : Our Cocoa Policy, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.marsgcc.com\/global\/about-us\/policies-and-practices\/cocoa-policy\">http:\/\/www.marsgcc.com\/global\/about-us\/policies-and-practices\/cocoa-policy<\/a>, accused on November 2, 2016<\/li>\n<li>Mars : Cocoa, <a href=\"http:\/\/international.mars.com\/global\/about-mars\/mars-pia\/our-supply-chain\/cocoa.aspx\">http:\/\/international.mars.com\/global\/about-mars\/mars-pia\/our-supply-chain\/cocoa.aspx<\/a>, accessed on November 2, 2016<\/li>\n<li>Ibid<\/li>\n<li>Ibid<\/li>\n<li>Ibid<\/li>\n<li>Ibid<\/li>\n<li>Ibid<\/li>\n<li>\u00a0\u201cPredicting the Impact of Climate Change on the Cocoa- Growing Regions in Ghana and Cote d\u2019Ivoire\u201d, Climate Change Agriculture and Food Security, International Center for Tropical Agriculture, September 2011, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.eenews.net\/assets\/2011\/10\/03\/document_cw_01.pdf\">http:\/\/www.eenews.net\/assets\/2011\/10\/03\/document_cw_01.pdf<\/a>, accessed on November 1 2016<\/li>\n<li>\n<p class=\"headline\">O. Nieburg,\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.confectionerynews.com\/Commodities\/What-is-the-future-of-cocoa-growing-in-Asia?utm_source=copyright&amp;utm_medium=OnSite&amp;utm_campaign=copyright\">\u2018We cannot let Indonesia fail\u2019: Mars stresses Asia\u2019s importance in meeting future cocoa demand<\/a>,\u00a029 April 2015,\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.confectionerynews.com\/Commodities\/What-is-the-future-of-cocoa-growing-in-Asia?utm_source=copyright&amp;utm_medium=OnSite&amp;utm_campaign=copyright\">http:\/\/www.confectionerynews.com\/Commodities\/What-is-the-future-of-cocoa-growing-in-Asia<\/a>, accessed on November 2 2016<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>Mars : Cocoa, <a href=\"http:\/\/international.mars.com\/global\/about-mars\/mars-pia\/our-supply-chain\/cocoa.aspx\">http:\/\/international.mars.com\/global\/about-mars\/mars-pia\/our-supply-chain\/cocoa.aspx<\/a>, accessed on November 2, 2016<\/li>\n<li>\u201dAssessment of Climate Change Impacts on Cocoa Production and Approaches to Adaptation and Mitigation: A Contextual View of Ghana and Costa Rica\u201d, World Cocoa Foundation, 2015, accessed on November 2 2016<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Amongst concerned chocolate aficionados, \u201cChocopalypse\u201d is an embellished term used to encapsulate the very real threat that climate change poses to global cocoa supplies. With chocopalypse looming closer, how does the American chocolate giant Mars, one of the world\u2019s largest cocoa buyers, secure its business in a world that is rapidly running out of chocolate? <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2276,"featured_media":13785,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","template":"","categories":[1795,835,1318,14],"class_list":["post-12736","hck-submission","type-hck-submission","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-cocoa","category-farming","category-mars","category-sustainability"],"connected_submission_link":"https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-rctom\/assignment\/climate-change-challenge-2016\/","yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Is the world running out of chocolate? - Technology and Operations Management<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-rctom\/submission\/is-the-world-running-out-of-chocolate\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Is the world running out of chocolate? - Technology and Operations Management\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Amongst concerned chocolate aficionados, \u201cChocopalypse\u201d is an embellished term used to encapsulate the very real threat that climate change poses to global cocoa supplies. 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