{"id":9108,"date":"2019-03-04T20:33:13","date_gmt":"2019-03-05T01:33:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/digital.hbs.edu\/platform-digit\/submission\/digital-era-helping-large-banks-grow-market-share\/"},"modified":"2019-03-04T20:33:13","modified_gmt":"2019-03-05T01:33:13","slug":"digital-era-helping-large-banks-grow-market-share","status":"publish","type":"hck-submission","link":"https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-digit\/submission\/digital-era-helping-large-banks-grow-market-share\/","title":{"rendered":"Digital Era Helping Large Banks Grow Market Share"},"content":{"rendered":"

The closing of branches and the corresponding transition to online banking will generate substantial advantages for the nation\u2019s largest banks. This article will describe the inherent advantages for large banks in digital acquisitions, underwriting analytics, and digital-first branch cafes.<\/p>\n

Industry Overview<\/strong><\/p>\n

The U.S. banking industry has dramatically shifted towards dominance by large banks. Driven by consolidation, the number of banking institutions fell from 10,175 to 5,743 during 1995-20151<\/sup>. Over that same period, market share (as measured by deposits) for banks with >$100B in assets rose from 7% to 58%, almost all coming at the expense of regional and local banks2<\/sup>.<\/p>\n

Customer Acquisitions: From branches to online<\/strong><\/p>\n

Branch Acquisitions: To this day, branches remain the majority channel for opening new banking accounts3<\/sup>. Traditionally, a nearby branch was critical for customers, who regularly visited banks to conduct most banking activities such as deposits, withdrawals and loan applications. As banks have shifted transactions online to reduce costs, they have been closing branches across the U.S. After peaking at 83,576 branches in 2012, the number fell to 79,163 in 20174<\/sup>. While not a huge decline, the more relevant story is the branch\u2019s reduced role in new account openings. \u00a0For instance, one study found the number of customers who considered \u2018branches nearby\u2019 the most important consideration in opening a new account fell from 30% to 16% from 2014 to 20165<\/sup>, replaced mainly by ‘mobile and digital capabilities’.<\/p>\n

As banking acquisitions move online, large players will benefit from increasing advantages in growing their market share.<\/p>\n

Digital Acquisitions Landscape<\/strong><\/p>\n

To understand acquisitions landscape, we will discuss the four main channels:<\/p>\n

    \n
  1. Natural(unpaid) search,<\/li>\n
  2. Promoted(paid) search,<\/li>\n
  3. Affiliates (resellers),<\/li>\n
  4. Digital Ads & \u2018Direct to Bank\u2019 (customer already has bank in mind)<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

     <\/p>\n

      \n
    1. Natural 性视界<\/strong> is the ultimate battleground for online acquisitions, in which Google plays the key role of arbitrator. A company\u2019s success on search is almost entirely based on its rank on Google searches. One online study (which mirrored several others available online) shows the correlation between page rank and click rate on mobile searches6<\/sup>:<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
      性视界 Rank<\/span><\/td>\nClick-Thru-Rate<\/span><\/td>\n性视界 Rank<\/span><\/td>\nClick-Thru-Rate<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
      1<\/td>\n23%<\/td>\n6<\/td>\n3%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
      2<\/td>\n14%<\/td>\n7<\/td>\n2%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
      3<\/td>\n10%<\/td>\n8<\/td>\n2%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
      4<\/td>\n6%<\/td>\n9<\/td>\n1%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
      5<\/td>\n4%<\/td>\n10<\/td>\n1%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

       <\/p>\n

      Success in natural search is driven by a bank\u2019s ability to produce relevant content and optimize their site to Google\u2019s search algorithm. Large banks have numerous advantages in this space. Their larger technology teams are better able to use search engine optimization (SEO) techniques to improve their ranking. Their strong brand names mean customers are more likely to click on them, increasing their relevance and by extension their ranking. To test this hypothesis, a quick Google search for \u2018open checking account\u2019 produced the following rankings (location: Boston, MA):<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
      Rank (unpaid)<\/span><\/td>\nInstitution<\/span><\/td>\nBank Rank (Assets) 7<\/sup><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
      1<\/td>\nWells Fargo<\/td>\n#4<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
      2<\/td>\nUS Bank<\/td>\n#7<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
      3<\/td>\nCapital One<\/td>\n#10<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
      4<\/td>\nNerd Wallet<\/td>\nAffiliate<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
      5<\/td>\nPNC<\/td>\n#9<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

      Across several other search terms, large banks consistently had the best rankings on Google, giving them a significant advantage over smaller banks.<\/p>\n

        \n
      1. Promoted (Paid) Google 性视界<\/strong> is a way for small or regional banks to make up for their disadvantage in unpaid search. Google determines Paid 性视界 results based on the bank\u2019s bid-per-click amount and click-through-rate. While smaller banks can use paid search, it is more expensive and less effective than unpaid search. Furthermore, smaller banks have to bid more to make up for their lower click rates (driven by lower awareness). Below is a sample of Google click bid rates:<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
        性视界 Term<\/span><\/td>\nCost per click (low)<\/span><\/td>\nCost per click (high)<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
        Checking Account<\/td>\n$16<\/td>\n$45<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
        Savings Account<\/td>\n$4<\/td>\n$40<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
        Credit Card<\/td>\n$6<\/td>\n$14<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
        Business Credit Card<\/span><\/td>\n$56<\/span><\/td>\n$123<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

        Source: Google Ads Custom Keyword 性视界, 3\/3\/19<\/p>\n

        Overall, while paid search is a viable alternative to smaller banks (indeed most paid results I encountered were smaller banks), the strategy is less effective and more costly than natural search.<\/p>\n

          \n
        1. Affiliates<\/strong>, which are websites like CreditKarma or NerdWallet that aggregate and compare banking products, are growing in importance in online banking acquisitions.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

          While affiliates seem unbiased to consumers, the companies receive significant commissions for generating new accounts for banks (usually ~$100, although varies by product). Thanks to these commissions, predominantly from large banks, affiliates have skyrocketed in valuations (e.g., NerdWallet valued at $500M8<\/sup>, Bankrate at $1.24B9<\/sup>, and Credit Karma at $4B10<\/sup>). While the affiliates claim to be unbiased in their disclaimers, larger banks are likely to negotiate better placement deals with affiliates. For instance, in the credit card segment, most affiliates emphasize products from the largest banks.<\/p>\n

          In some cases, affiliates are less biased in showing products to customers. This scenario is especially true for Savings accounts, which are generally ranked by highest interest rate. While this may seem welcome news for smaller banks, that\u2019s not necessarily the case. To beat the competition, smaller banks have to enter an interest rate \u2018arms race\u2019, which costs them money (e.g., Ally and Barclays offer 2.2% today). In contrast, large banks, accustomed to paying significantly less (e.g., Bank of America offers 0.03% today) do not engage in this race. While this interest rate discrepancy presents a vulnerability to large banks, they remain able to maintain their dominant market share despite significantly inferior interest rate offerings.<\/p>\n

            \n
          1. Digital Ads \/ Direct-to-bank:<\/strong> In this space, the equation is quite simple. Through extensive marketing budgets, large banks become top of mind for consumers and place the largest number of ads. However, the advantages of scale are less here, as smaller banks can pursue targeted online marketing campaigns at reasonable costs.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

             <\/p>\n

            AI and Underwriting Analytics:<\/strong><\/p>\n

            For financial products requiring advanced underwriting (such as credit cards and car loans to subprime buyers), large institutions with better access to technology and engineers will create better models to serve these customers. For example, JPMorgan Chase global head of AI and machine learning indicated that machine learning will allow the bank to develop new products and better engage traditionally non-served customers11<\/sup>.<\/p>\n

            The use of advanced analytics for underserved customers was key to the emergence of Capital One in 1994. An early mover in underwriting analytics, the bank grew to become the nation\u2019s largest subprime auto lender (non-captive) and credit card issuer12<\/sup>. While subprime customers represent only 20-25% of U.S. consumers, they command significantly higher interest rates (often 15%-20%)13<\/sup> and thus profitability.<\/p>\n

            The success of large banks to win in AI-driven underwriting presents vulnerabilities as well. Several AI-centric technology companies are likely to develop new underwriting models that disrupt the large banks\u2019 current dominance.<\/p>\n

             <\/p>\n

            Digital-first Branch Cafes<\/strong><\/p>\n

            Imagine creating a branch designed predominantly to take advantage of customer acquisition benefit of branches in a low-cost, effective manner. To achieve this goal, Capital One, which lacks the branch network of its larger rivals, developed Capital One Cafes in partnership with Peet\u2019s Coffee. The company is placing the cafes in highly transited locations to build brand recognition. A Capital One product is not required to use the cafes, although current cardholders receive a 50% discount in store14<\/sup>.<\/p>\n

            While the cafes contain ATMs, they offer no other banking transactions (other than what customers can do online at CapitalOne.com). Driving customers to online products saves the company costs, as it eliminates the need for relationship bankers and compliance with state-level bank branch regulations. Results for the strategy are yet to be seen, but it seems like an innovative idea for banks of all sizes to efficiently build a digital-first, low-cost branches focused on acquiring new customers.<\/p>\n

             <\/p>\n

            Sources<\/strong><\/p>\n

              \n
            1. St. Louis Fed FRED Economic Data, \u201cCommercial Banks in the U.S., https:\/\/fred.stlouisfed.org\/series\/USNUM<\/a>, accessed March 2019.<\/li>\n
            2. Lavecchia, Olivia, \u201cShare of Deposits by Size of Institution, 1995-2014,\u201d Institute for Local Self-Reliance<\/em>, April 20, 2015, https:\/\/ilsr.org\/distribution-of-deposits-by-size-of-financial-institution\/<\/a>, accessed March 2019.<\/li>\n
            3. Rubin, Rob, \u201cGet Ready for Mobile Account Opening,\u201d The Financial Brand,<\/em> April 22, 2014, https:\/\/thefinancialbrand.com\/38869\/mobile-checking-account-opening\/<\/a>, accessed March 2019.<\/li>\n
            4. Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, \u201cHistorical Bank Data,\u201d https:\/\/banks.data.fdic.gov\/explore\/historical?displayFields=STNAME%2CBANKS%2CASSET%2CDEP%2CNETINC%2CINTINC%2CEINTEXP%2CTPD&selectedEndDate=2017&selectedReport=CB&selectedStartDate=1934&selectedStates=0&sortField=YEAR&sortOrder=desc<\/a>, accessed March 2019.<\/li>\n
            5. Novantas Research, \u201c2017 Omni-Channel Shopper Survey A Digital Inflection Point for Banking,\u201d 2017, http:\/\/www.consumerbankers.com\/sites\/default\/files\/Novantas%202017%20Omni%20Channel%20Shopper%20Survey.pdf<\/a>, accessed March 2019.<\/li>\n
            6. Advanced Web Ranking, \u201cGoogle Organic CTR History,\u201d https:\/\/www.advancedwebranking.com\/ctrstudy\/<\/a>, accessed March 2019.<\/li>\n
            7. Dixon, Amanda, \u201cAmerica\u2019s 15 Largest Banks,\u201d Bankrate,<\/em> February 20, 2019, https:\/\/www.bankrate.com\/banking\/americas-top-10-biggest-banks\/#slide=1<\/a>, accessed March 2019.<\/li>\n
            8. Huddleston Jr, Tom, \u201cAfter being laid off, this 35-year-old founded NerdWallet with $800 \u2013 now it\u2019s worth $500 million,\u201d CNBC, <\/em>May 9, 2018, https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2018\/05\/09\/tim-chen-started-500-million-company-nerdwallet-with-800.html<\/a>, accessed March 2019.<\/li>\n
            9. Lane, Ben, \u201cFinancial publishing giant Bankrate selling to Red Ventures for $1.24 billion,\u201d HousingWire,<\/em> July 5, 2017, https:\/\/www.housingwire.com\/articles\/40608-financial-publishing-giant-bankrate-selling-to-red-ventures-for-124-billion<\/a>, accessed March 2019.<\/li>\n
            10. PYMNTS, \u201cCredit Karma now valued at $4B Thanks to $500M Funding Boost,\u201d March 29, 2018, https:\/\/www.pymnts.com\/news\/investment-tracker\/2018\/credit-karma-funding-silver-lake-investment\/<\/a>, accessed March 2019.<\/li>\n
            11. Knowledge @ Wharton, \u201cWhat\u2019s Behind JPMorgan Chase\u2019s Big Bet on Artificial Intelligence?,\u201d Wharton University of Pennsylvania<\/em>, February 6, 2019, http:\/\/knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu\/article\/whats-behind-jpmorgan-chases-big-bet-artificial-intelligence\/<\/a>, accessed March 2019.<\/li>\n
            12. Dee, Steve, \u201cHow Does Capital One Differentiate Itself In The Card Industry,\u201d Forbes<\/em>, September 11, 2015, https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/sites\/greatspeculations\/2015\/09\/11\/how-does-capital-one-differentiate-itself-in-the-card-industry\/#591abec33cda<\/a>, accessed March 2019.<\/li>\n
            13. Andriotis, AnnaMaria, \u201cMillions of U.S. Consumer Are Escaping Subprime,\u201d WSJ, <\/em>June 22, 2016, https:\/\/www.wsj.com\/articles\/consumers-improving-credit-scores-give-banks-reason-to-cheer-1466587801<\/a>, accessed March 2019.<\/li>\n
            14. Capital One, \u201cCapital One 360 Brings New Banking Experience to Boston with First Area Caf\u00e9,\u201d February 18, 2014, http:\/\/press.capitalone.com\/phoenix.zhtml?c=251626&p=irol-newsArticle&ID=1900755<\/a>, accessed March 2019.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

               <\/p>\n

               <\/p>\n

               <\/p>\n

               <\/p>\n

               <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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