{"id":7665,"date":"2018-04-05T15:12:46","date_gmt":"2018-04-05T19:12:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/digital.hbs.edu\/platform-digit\/submission\/moreyball-the-houston-rockets-and-analytics\/"},"modified":"2018-04-05T15:12:46","modified_gmt":"2018-04-05T19:12:46","slug":"moreyball-the-houston-rockets-and-analytics","status":"publish","type":"hck-submission","link":"https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-digit\/submission\/moreyball-the-houston-rockets-and-analytics\/","title":{"rendered":"Moreyball: The Houston Rockets and Analytics"},"content":{"rendered":"

Overview<\/strong><\/p>\n

As we saw in our case on TSG Hoffenheim, analytics can be used in various ways to improve a sports team\u2019s performance on the field.\u00a0 While baseball was the first sport in the U.S. to fully internalize and adapt based on this realization, basketball has also begun to migrate toward more analytics-heavy strategies and techniques.\u00a0 The charge has been led by Daryl Morey, General Manager of the Houston Rockets, a former consultant and MIT Sloan Graduate who did not played professional or college basketball.\u00a0 His prior work as a statistical consultant drove him to gain a deeper understanding of basketball and how teams operate inefficiently, costing them wins.<\/p>\n

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Strategy<\/strong><\/p>\n

Morey\u2019s most fundamental insight involved taking an increased number of three-point shots.\u00a0Three-point shots in basketball are more difficult because they are further away from the basket, but Morey recognized that the 50% uplift in points received for the three-point shot (compared to a two-point shot) made it more mathematically efficient than almost all two-point shots other than dunks and lay-ups.\u00a0 In particular, Morey (and others) realized that three-point attempts from the corner of the court (\u201ccorner threes\u201d) had a higher percentage chance of going in (because the shape of the three-point line made corner threes closer to the basket) and were therefore more valuable.\u00a0 Many set plays are now designed specifically to get strong three-point shooters open for corner threes.\u00a0 The on-court numbers back up the commitment to this strategy as the Rockets have already broken the record for most three-point shots made in a season, with games to spare.\u00a0 The team that previously held the record?\u00a0 None other than last season\u2019s Rockets.<\/p>\n

What Morey disliked on the court were longer two-point shots \u2013 these shots produced a lower average number of points per attempt.\u00a0 If a player was going to take a two point shot, Morey wanted them to be close to the basket inside the \u201crestricted area\u201d.\u00a0 The Rockets have taken 82% of their shots as either three-points shots or shots inside the restricted area this season; the second-highest team in that statistic is only at 71%.\u00a0 Morey\u2019s team is more efficient with their shot selection and the results have shown: the Rockets currently lead the NBA in wins and rank second in points per game.<\/p>\n

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Risks<\/strong><\/p>\n

As the analytical methods have gained prominence over the past several years, other coaches and general managers have begun adopting a more statistics-based approach as well.\u00a0The data backs this up \u2013 in the NBA overall last year, players shot a record number of three-point shots.\u00a0 The risks of the analytical-heavy decision-making processes are fairly limited but teams have had varying degrees of success. \u00a0Without the right players to employ the analytics-heavy strategy, teams can easily fail to achieve the expected results.\u00a0 While three-point shots may be more efficient, if a team doesn\u2019t possess any good three-point shooters, this strategy will still fail them.\u00a0 The trend of more three-point shots has also trickled down to college basketball; just in the past week, we saw Villanova set the record for most three-point shots made in a single Final Four game.<\/p>\n

The NBA (and the Rockets in particular) has also received a fair amount of criticism for their style of play.\u00a0 Fans have degraded their approach as boring and repetitive as the team is frequently attempting similar types of shots on every possession.\u00a0 For the Rockets as an organization, they shouldn\u2019t be worried about this criticism because as long as they are winning games, they will get fans in the seats.\u00a0 However, the NBA as a league might have some thinking to do regarding the changing style of play in their league. \u00a0At the moment the NBA remains incredibly popular, but preventing the game from being a three-point shooting contest should be a relatively high priority for the league.\u00a0 One option is to move back the three-point line to make it more difficult and less efficient from a statistical perspective.\u00a0 However, there isn\u2019t much room on the sides of the court to extend the three-point line; moreover, traditionalists don\u2019t want these elements to change as it will make records and era comparisons incongruent.<\/p>\n

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Conclusion<\/strong><\/p>\n

Overall, what Daryl Morey has done is both highly innovative and successful.\u00a0 He saw an inefficient on the basketball court and won over the support of his organization by presenting the analytics justification for his methodology.\u00a0 The lingering question: how sustainable is this success?<\/p>\n

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See this YouTube clip for a 60 Minutes segment on basketball analytics:\u00a0 https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=BHuZc9lQ5ss<\/a><\/p>\n

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Exhibit 1: Shot efficiency in the NBA \/ Houston Rockets most common shot locations<\/p>\n

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Exhibit 2: League-wide three-point shots attempted over time<\/p>\n

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Sources:<\/em><\/p>\n

https:\/\/www.theatlantic.com\/entertainment\/archive\/2017\/11\/a-high-scoring-revolution-has-the-rockets-soaring\/547103\/<\/a><\/p>\n

https:\/\/inews.co.uk\/sport\/moreyball-houston-rockets-three-pointers\/<\/a><\/p>\n

http:\/\/www.espn.com\/nba\/story\/_\/id\/9024190\/moreyball-how-houston-rockets-became-nba-most-exciting-team<\/a><\/p>\n

https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/news\/fancy-stats\/wp\/2018\/02\/26\/how-the-houston-rockets-built-nbas-best-offense\/?utm_term=.268e7409acd4<\/a><\/p>\n

https:\/\/qz.com\/1104922\/data-analytics-have-revolutionized-the-nba\/<\/a><\/p>\n

http:\/\/www.nba.com\/article\/2018\/04\/01\/houston-rockets-break-single-season-record-most-3-pointers-made<\/a><\/p>\n

https:\/\/www.si.com\/college-basketball\/2018\/03\/31\/villanova-3-point-records-final-four<\/a><\/p>\n

The Future of Basketball Is Here, and It Looks a Lot Like James Harden<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n