{"id":12626,"date":"2020-04-27T10:55:33","date_gmt":"2020-04-27T14:55:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/digital.hbs.edu\/platform-digit\/submission\/gopuff-and-covid-19-the-privilege-and-doom-of-exponential-growth-in-the-convenience-goods-online-market\/"},"modified":"2020-04-27T12:06:37","modified_gmt":"2020-04-27T16:06:37","slug":"gopuff-and-covid-19-the-privilege-and-doom-of-exponential-growth-in-the-convenience-goods-online-market","status":"publish","type":"hck-submission","link":"https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-digit\/submission\/gopuff-and-covid-19-the-privilege-and-doom-of-exponential-growth-in-the-convenience-goods-online-market\/","title":{"rendered":"GoPuff and COVID-19: The privilege and doom of exponential growth in the convenience goods online market."},"content":{"rendered":"

A transformation that started well before the pandemic<\/strong><\/p>\n

US\u2019 fast-moving-consumer-goods (FMCG) online sales have been already growing at a 30% CAGR during pre-COVID-19 times[1]<\/a> and convenience stores, with sales representing 3.1% of total U.S. GDP[2]<\/a>, have been ripe for disruption for a long time before this pandemic. With a myriad of segments to target, the space has seen the entrance of a diverse set of players and business models. Amazon and the big retailers with their online channels, deploying vertically integrated operations; platforms such as Instacart, Doordash or UberEats partnering with traditional chains (such as 7Now, 7-Eleven online store in partnership with Doordash or Walgreens partnership with Postmates); and relatively specialized players such as Drizly or Saucey that focus on spirits.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Amidst this fiercely competitive landscape, goPuff is an on-demand convenience store (no brick-and-mortar) with full ownership (control) of its distribution network (an a-la-Amazon model). The company, which started in 2013 to satisfy the impulsive purchases of snacks and spirits of college students, now sells more than 2500 products (from snacks to OTC medicines) in 170 markets.<\/p>\n

From Millennials to Millennials: Order in seconds, Delivery in minutes <\/strong><\/p>\n

Customer\u2019s joy of completing an unplanned purchase in a couple of minutes is what makes brick-and-mortar convenience stores so successful. goPuff creates value by offering that same convenience, but online, and improving it. When most of the online retailers put high-premium delivery fees for a 2 hours delivery, goPuff keeps its promise simple: all deliveries in less than 30 minutes, 24\/7, and for a standard 1.95 USD delivery fee with no surge pricing. And that\u2019s where the ownership of the distribution network plays a key role for the company\u2019s value creation strategy, from feeding the demand forecasting algorithms to controlling the full customer experience.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

In addition, goPuff\u2019s app provides users with a fast and seamless ordering process that, combined with fast delivery, justify the slightly higher premium they charge compared to traditional convenience stores. Millennials and Gen-Z\u2019s, who make up 51% of convenience store sales[3]<\/a> and are the company\u2019s main target segment, are happy with the service and the value capture strategy seems to pay-off: \u201cgoPuff is profitable in most markets, reaching a break-even point in an average of 5.5 months.\u201d[4]<\/a><\/p>\n

By having full digital access to Millennial and Gen-Z customers, goPuff provides FMCG manufacturers with an excellent channel to understand consumer patterns and how users interact with their brands. The company offers \u201caction-oriented behavioral insights\u201d[5]<\/a>, premium virtual shelf spaces, or individualized marketing campaigns, thus establishing a profitable way of collaborating with its CPG partners.<\/p>\n

Exponential growth and untapped opportunities during COVID-19<\/strong><\/p>\n

It\u2019s shouldn\u2019t be surprising that during COVID-19 the e-commerce sector as a whole has experienced a +100% Y-o-Y growth[6]<\/a>, even after the first panic-buying wave disappeared. In fact, goPuff registered a “nearly 90% increase in customers ordering at least once per week (vs. March 2019),\u00a0 and a 55% increase in order value”[7]<\/a>.<\/p>\n

However, and what is perhaps more surprising, is the fact that the pandemic brought a completely new set of users and significantly changed consumer behavior. goPuff has seen an abrupt change of mix of the products it commercializes, with cooking and beauty products growing at 112% rates to address the new DIY needs in American households. The new normal has become the normal, and goPuff has been able to quickly understand these trends, respond to the new needs better than its competitors, bring more customers (and transactions) on board and feed its machine learning models to improve company\u2019s category management capabilities and speed-up the data flywheel.<\/p>\n

At the same time, more mature and older users started to enter the app, engaging with the same frequency than tech-savvy millennials but with larger order sizes. In fact, \u201cnew customers order value surpassed that of existing goPuff customers in 5 of 7 days of the week\u201d[7]<\/a>. So, COVID-19\u00a0 not only boosted the penetration among goPuff\u2019s existing customer segment but also allowed the company to tap a new (and more profitable) customer profile that will require goPuff to rethink its product strategy.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>
COVID-19 Consumer Behavior Timeline – Source: goPuff<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Capturing short term opportunities to leverage long-term sustainable growth<\/strong><\/p>\n

As the above-mentioned figures prove, goPuff has been already able to capture the short-term benefits of the \u201cnew normal\u201d dynamics. Looking into the future, goPuff should take the following actions to sustain its long-term growth.<\/p>\n

Retaining the new customer segments<\/em>: <\/strong>the pandemic has already boosted the awareness of the convenience of delivery services for essential goods and speeded up the transition to eCommerce. goPuff should strictly define the new customer segments that are accessing its service, use its predicting capabilities to adapt (through incremental innovations) its product offerings and delivery preferences to these groups, expand its penetration rate into these segments and feed the data flywheel. Even though the COVID-19 reduced the CAC for these new segments, any failed step or experience, particularly with bigger competitive pressure, could backlash and reduce the viral coefficient of these highly profitable groups.<\/p>\n

Keeping goPuff as a \u201cproduct\u201d:<\/em> even though a platform model could bring larger profits in the short-term, goPuff should keep its business as a vertically integrated product to sustain its differentiated offering in the long run. The end-to-end control of the customer journey will allow goPuff to deepen its relationships with FMCG\u2019s manufacturers, improve the speed and quality of its product innovation processes (relevant when entering to new customer segments) and improving the efficiency of its unique logistics network (a competitive edge that most of the rivals have not solved yet).<\/p>\n

Improving price transparency: <\/em>since the pandemic will cause a severe recession, the \u201cnew normal\u201d will be characterized by more price-conscious consumers, even in the convenience goods market. Thus, goPuff should anticipate this trend and improve its price transparency: alternatives could range from both implicit and explicit pricing algorithms that take into consideration its rivals\u2019 pricing to customer spending tracking tools that allow users to better budget their expenses (or highlight savings vs. other competitors).<\/p>\n

Enlarging CPG\u2019s partnerships and services offerings: <\/em>goPuff should double down on its partnerships with FMCG\u2019s manufacturers, offer these players an alternative set of online retail data and services that both Amazon or other big retailers such as Walmart are reluctant to provide (or that provide at high cost) and thus increase these customers{ multi-homing costs, or at least their stickiness to goPuff\u2019s channel. In addition to current offerings (behavioral insights and marketing campaigns), goPuff should add more sophisticated and differentiated tools, ranging from product development platforms (for example, that could help brands to launch a crowdsourced initiative or A\/B tests for different customer groups) to brand’s extended loyalty programs.<\/p>\n

Sources:<\/strong><\/p>\n

[1]<\/a> Kantar World Panel, “Global online FMCG sales grew by 20% in 2018”, June 2019,\u00a0https:\/\/www.kantarworldpanel.com\/global\/News\/Global-online-FMCG-sales-grew-by-20-in-2018,<\/a> accessed April 2020.<\/p>\n

[2]<\/a> National Association for Convenience Stores, “Convenience Retail Industry Pivots for Long-Term COVID-19 Impact”, April 14th, 2020, https:\/\/www.convenience.org\/Media\/Press-Releases\/2020\/Convenience-Retail-Industry-Pivots-for-Long-Term-C#.XqXtFshKhPY<\/a>, accessed April 2020.<\/p>\n

[3]<\/a> Jackson Lewis, “5 Reasons GoPuff Is More Dangerous Than Amazon”, CSP Daily News<\/em>, June 2017, https:\/\/www.cspdailynews.com\/technologyservices\/5-reasons-gopuff-more-dangerous-amazon#page=2<\/a>, accessed April 2020.<\/p>\n

[4]<\/a> Dinah Wisenberg Brin, “Delivery start-up goPuff fills overnight needs \u2014 and whims”, CBNC.com<\/em>, September 17th, 2017, https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2016\/09\/17\/delivery-start-up-has-a-late-night-plan-to-outdo-amazon.html<\/a>, accessed April 2020.<\/p>\n

[5]<\/a>Dave Know, “How Brands Can Adapt To Changing Consumer Behavior Amid COVID-19”,\u00a0Forbes<\/em>,\u00a0 April 17th, 2020, https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/sites\/daveknox\/2020\/04\/17\/how-brands-can-adapt-to-changing-consumer-behavior-amid-covid-19\/#887ff725947b<\/a>, accessed April 2020.<\/p>\n

[6]<\/a> Emarsys in cooperation with GoodData, “COVID-19 Commerce Insights”, https:\/\/ccinsight.org\/<\/a>, accessed April 2020.<\/p>\n

[7]<\/a> goPuff, “Consumer Behavior amidst COVID-19: White Paper”, April 2020,https:\/\/cms.gopuff.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/COVID-19-Whitepaper.pdf<\/a>, accessed April 2020.<\/p>\n

[8]<\/a> Jeff Fromm, “Marketing Convenience To The Modern Consumer”, Forbes<\/em>, January 2019, https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/sites\/jefffromm\/2019\/01\/04\/marketing-convenience-to-the-modern-consumer\/#590d4112127f<\/a>, accessed April 2020.<\/p>\n

[9]<\/a> Lauren Debter, “A Low-Profile Delivery Unicorn Eyes A New Customer: Busy Healthcare Workers”, Forbes<\/em>, March 27th, 2020, https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/sites\/laurendebter\/2020\/03\/27\/gopuff-delivery-service-healthcare-workers-coronavirus\/#3b47bef43f9f<\/a>, accessed April 2020.<\/p>\n

[10]<\/a> Claire Sasko, “Beyond Condoms, Cheese Puffs and Beer: How GoPuff Became Essential”, Philly Magazine<\/em>, April 1st, 2020, https:\/\/www.phillymag.com\/news\/2020\/04\/01\/gopuff-coronavirus-essentials\/<\/a>, accessed April 2020.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Exponential growth during a global pandemic is always good news, but as competitive pressure increases so are the challenges to sustain this short-term advantage and avoid no-turning-back failures.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":11909,"featured_media":12627,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","template":"","categories":[2852,2849,814,2851,2850],"class_list":["post-12626","hck-submission","type-hck-submission","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-convenience-stores","category-covid-19","category-ecommerce","category-gopuff","category-pandemic","hck-taxonomy-organization-gopuff","hck-taxonomy-industry-retail","hck-taxonomy-country-united-states"],"connected_submission_link":"https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-digit\/assignment\/digital-innovation-and-transformation-during-the-covid-19-pandemic\/","yoast_head":"\nGoPuff and COVID-19: The privilege and doom of exponential growth in the convenience goods online market. - Digital Innovation and Transformation<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-digit\/submission\/gopuff-and-covid-19-the-privilege-and-doom-of-exponential-growth-in-the-convenience-goods-online-market\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"GoPuff and COVID-19: The privilege and doom of exponential growth in the convenience goods online market. - 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